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Boise State visits South Florida to take on the Bulls in what will be the 2025 opener for both teams. Boise State is favored by anywhere from -8 to -9.5 depending on the sportsbook, with a total of 63.5 at betonline.
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Date/Time: August 28, 2025, 5:30 PM EST
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Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
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Spread: Boise State -8 to -9.5 (varies by sportsbook)
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Total: 63.5
Team Overviews
Boise State Broncos (2024: 12-2, 7-0 MWC)
Boise State enters their last season in the MWC as they will move to the new PAC-12 in 2026. Last year, they dominated the MWC, averaging 37 points per game while boasting a ferocious defense that led the nation with 55 sacks. Their season was highlighted by a College Football Playoff appearance, though they fell to Penn State in that game.
Key Strengths:
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Returning Talent: Boise State returns 9 offensive and 6 defensive starters, providing continuity. The offense, led by quarterback Maddux Madsen, remains potent despite the loss of Heisman runner-up RB Ashton Jeanty (drafted by the Las Vegas Raiders). Jeanty’s 2024 season was historic, with 2,497 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns, but Boise’s depth at running back (e.g., sophomore Sire Gaines) and a veteran offensive line should mitigate the impact.
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Defensive Prowess: The defensive front is relentless. Their 55 sacks in 2024 were fueled by a high-pressure scheme that disrupted opposing offenses.
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Experience in Big Games: Boise’s 2024 schedule included a marquee loss at Oregon (37-34) and a playoff run, preparing them for hostile road environments like Tampa. Their October 4, 2025, game at Notre Dame looms as a defining moment, but this opener sets the tone.
Key Concerns:
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Replacing Jeanty’s production is no small task. The running game will rely on a committee approach, which may lack the same explosiveness.
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Road games early in the season can be tricky, especially against a motivated AAC contender like South Florida.
South Florida Bulls (2024: 7-6, 4-4 AAC)
South Florida is a program on the rise under coach Alex Golesh. The Bulls went 7-6 in 2024, capped by a bowl appearance, and return 6 starters on both offense and defense. They’re expected to contend for the AAC title in 2025, with a bowl game as the minimum expectation. Last seasonthey went toe to toe with Alabama earlier in the year. That game was a 5 point game with just a little over 6 minutes remaining so the final score is misleading.
Key Strengths:
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Quarterback Competition: The Bulls return Byrum Brown and Bryce Archie, who split time in 2024 after Brown’s injury in Week 5. Brown, the likely starter, is a dual-threat playmaker (1,898 passing yards, 809 rushing yards in 2024). His mobility could exploit Boise’s aggressive defense.
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Veteran Offensive Line: Despite losing their top three rushers, South Florida’s experienced offensive line (4 returning starters) provides stability. New RBs will benefit from their blocking.
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Disruptive Defense: The Bulls’ defense ranked highly in tackles for loss (7.1 per game, 25th nationally) and turnovers gained (21, 15th nationally) in 2024. They also recorded their most sacks in seven seasons.
Key Concerns:
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The running back position is a question mark after losing Nay’Quan Wright and others. The ground game may struggle against Boise’s stout front.
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While South Florida hung with Alabama, their 4-4 AAC record exposed inconsistencies against lesser opponents. They’ll need to avoid mental lapses against a disciplined Boise State team.
Betting Analysis
Spread: Boise State -8 to -9.5
Boise State’s talent and experience make them the deserved favorite, but the -9.5 spread feels steep for a road opener. South Florida’s performance against Alabama last year (trailing 14-13 after three quarters) shows they can compete with elite teams. Our model, based on the last seven games of 2024, predicts a 35-21 Boise State win, but Jeanty’s absence could narrow that margin. South Florida’s veteran offensive line and dual-threat QB should keep them within striking distance.
Boise State’s talent and experience make them the deserved favorite, but the -9.5 spread feels steep for a road opener. South Florida’s performance against Alabama last year (trailing 14-13 after three quarters) shows they can compete with elite teams. Our model, based on the last seven games of 2024, predicts a 35-21 Boise State win, but Jeanty’s absence could narrow that margin. South Florida’s veteran offensive line and dual-threat QB should keep them within striking distance.
Total: Over/Under 63.5
Boise State’s offense averaged 37 points per game in 2024, while South Florida’s defense allowed 27.5 points per game. The Bulls’ offense, with Brown’s playmaking, can exploit Boise’s aggressive defense for chunk plays. However, both teams face questions in the running game, which could limit long, sustained drives. Still, early-season games often feature defensive miscues, and 63.5 feels reachable if both offenses click.
Prediction
South Florida’s home-field advantage, veteran offensive line, and dynamic quarterback play make them a live underdog. Boise State is the better team, but replacing Jeanty and playing on the road in Week 1 could lead to a closer game than expected.
The Bulls’ ability to force turnovers and generate tackles for loss should disrupt Boise’s rhythm. Our model’s 35-21 projection feels slightly optimistic for Boise given Jeanty’s departure, and South Florida’s Alabama game proves they can hang with top-tier teams.
The Bulls keep this game within a touchdown, capitalizing on Boise’s adjustment to a new running back and early-season road challenges.
Total Lean: Over 63.5 (-110)
Both offenses have enough firepower to push this game into the high 60s, especially if South Florida’s passing game exploits Boise’s aggressive defense.
Final Score Prediction: Boise State 34, South Florida 27
Our Pick – South Florida +9.5 (-110)
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