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The college football season kicks off with a matchup on August 28, 2025, between Jacksonville State (JSU) and UCF for a 7:00 PM EST kickoff. UCF enters as a -16.5 point favorite with a total of 56.5.
Both Teams Face Transition in 2025
Both Jacksonville State and UCF are navigating significant changes heading into 2025. JSU, coming off a 9-5 season (7-1 in CUSA), welcomes new head coach Charles Kelly, previously Auburn’s offensive coordinator. UCF, after a disappointing 4-8 campaign (2-7 in Big 12), sees the return of Scott Frost as head coach. Both teams suffered heavy player losses, with JSU returning just 2-3 offensive starters and 2 defensive starters, while UCF also integrates new faces across the roster.
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New coaches mean new schemes, and with both sides likely to experience trial and error early, growing pains could keep this game competitive. The transfer portal will be a wildcard for both programs. JSU bolstered its roster with portal talent, and while most observers expect the Gamecocks to remain a CUSA contender, the hit-or-miss nature of portal additions adds uncertainty. UCF, similarly reliant on transfers to rebuild, may not gel immediately against a battle-tested JSU squad.
JSU’s Rushing Attack: The Key to Covering
JSU’s 2024 season was defined by a dominant ground game, averaging 258.2 yards per game and leading the nation in rushing touchdowns. This run-heavy approach, which powered them to 38.7 points per game (9th in FBS) and 456.7 total yards (12th nationally), is tailor-made to exploit UCF’s defensive weaknesses.
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The Knights struggled against the run in 2024, allowing 150-180 rushing yards per game against Big 12 opponents. JSU’s ability to grind out long drives should control the clock, limit UCF’s possessions, and keep the score within reach.
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JSU’s defense allowed just 21.2 points and 352.8 yards per game. While their pass defense was a weak point (221.9 YPG, 71st in FBS), their red-zone defense and experience against tough CUSA schedules make them adept at forcing stops in critical moments. This could frustrate a UCF offense that struggled with inconsistency and quarterback play in 2024.
UCF’s Motivation vs. JSU’s Competitiveness
UCF is eager to rebound from a 4-8 season, and August in Orlando’s hot, humid conditions may test JSU’s depth while favoring the Knights’ conditioning. UCF has a history of dominating non-conference Group of 5 and FCS opponents, often covering large spreads (e.g., 56-10 vs. New Hampshire in 2024). However, their 2024 struggles against a tougher Big 12 schedule suggest they’re not invincible, especially with new starters and a new system under Frost.
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JSU, meanwhile, proved they can hang in competitive games. Their 6-6 ATS record in 2024, including a perfect 3-0 ATS as 12.5+ point favorites, shows they thrive when their run game clicks. A 44-37 win over Louisiana Tech highlights their ability to compete in high-scoring affairs, though a 49-14 loss to Louisville exposed vulnerabilities against Power 4 teams. Still, UCF’s 2024 inconsistencies and potential rust make a blowout less likely.
The Betting Angle: JSU Keeps It Close
This game hinges on JSU’s run game against UCF’s front seven. If the Gamecocks can establish the ground attack and sustain long drives, they’ll limit UCF’s offensive opportunities and lean on their stout red-zone defense to force field goals. UCF’s talent and home-field advantage should secure the win, but a 16.5-point spread feels inflated given both teams’ transitions and JSU’s strengths.
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We project a final score of UCF 34, JSU 20, giving JSU the cover. The Gamecocks’ elite rushing attack, disciplined defense, and ability to grind out possessions will keep this game closer than the spread suggests. Take JSU +16.5
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