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Auburn vs. Baylor College Football Preview and Prediction:
August 29, 2025
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The 2025 college football season kicks off with a marquee matchup as Auburn travels to Waco to face Baylor on August 29 at 8:00 PM EST. Auburn enters as a -2.5 road favorite with the over/under set at 56.5 (betonline), but our analysis leans toward the home underdog.
High Hopes in Year 3 Under Hugh Freeze
Auburn is coming off a disappointing 5-7 season (2-6 in SEC play), but optimism is surging in year three of the Hugh Freeze era.
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Historically, year three is when coaches see their systems take hold, and this is Freeze’s most talented Auburn squad yet. The Tigers hit the transfer portal hard, most notably landing quarterback Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma. Arnold’s dual-threat ability could elevate an offense that struggled in 2024. Auburn also added several receivers through the portal to bolster the passing game.
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Defensively, Auburn returns four starters and was a standout unit last season, ranking ninth nationally in yards per rush attempt allowed. However, with only five offensive starters back, the Tigers’ rebuilt attack will face a stern test in Week 1.
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This opener is critical for Auburn to set the tone for a bounce-back season, but they’ll need to gel quickly against a battle-tested Baylor team.
Baylor: Poised for a Big 12 Title Run
Baylor, meanwhile, is riding momentum from an 8-5 campaign (6-3 in Big 12 play) in 2024. Head coach Dave Aranda, who was on the hot seat entering last season, silenced doubters with a strong turnaround. Aranda has boldly declared that “things have changed” in Waco, and expectations are sky-high—many college football insiders believe Baylor could compete for the Big 12 title in 2025.
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The Bears’ offense is their calling card, returning eight starters from a unit that ranked 20th nationally in total offense last year. With a deep roster and plenty of playmakers, Baylor’s attack is primed to exploit Auburn’s retooled defense. On the defensive side, Baylor struggled in 2024 but aggressively targeted the transfer portal to shore up weaknesses. Five defensive starters return, giving the Bears a blend of experience and new talent.
Matchup Analysis: High Expectations
This game pits two programs with lofty goals and reloaded rosters against each other. Auburn’s defensive strength against the run will be tested by Baylor’s potent, balanced offense, which can attack through the air and on the ground.
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The Tigers’ new-look offense, led by Arnold, will need to find rhythm early against a Baylor defense that’s still finding its footing but has the depth to make plays.Our predictive model, using 2024 data and factoring in returning talent and transfer additions, projects a 28-21 Baylor victory.
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While both teams leaned heavily on the transfer portal, Baylor’s continuity on offense—combined with their home-field advantage—gives them the edge. Auburn’s defense is formidable, but Week 1 road games are tough, especially against a Baylor offense that could overwhelm the Tigers’ rebuilt secondary.
Betting Angle: Why Baylor +2.5 Is the Play
As a home underdog, Baylor offers excellent value at +2.5. The Bears’ high-powered offense should keep Auburn’s defense on its heels, and Aranda’s squad has the depth to win a high-scoring affair. Auburn, despite its talent, may need time to gel with so many new pieces, particularly on offense.
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In a game that could come down to the wire, getting points with Baylor at home is the smart bet.
Pick: Baylor +2.5
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