Stanford Cardinal at BYU Cougars Betting Preview (Sept. 6, 2025)
Line Movement and Context
Heading into Week 2, the betting market has made BYU a heavy favorite over Stanford (18.5 at (betonline). National models are bullish on the Cougars—ESPN’s FPI gives them about a 89 % win probability and ranks BYU 17th nationally and first in the Big 12. Yet early-season data are limited and there are reasons to believe Stanford can keep things closer than the market expects.
Why the Market Loves BYU
BYU opened 2025 with a 69‑0 demolition of Portland State. The Cougars rotated three quarterbacks and leaned on a deep rushing attack, handing the ball off 48 times for 468 yards (9.8 yards per carry). Freshman running back LJ Martin ripped off 131 yards on eight carries, and BYU was so far ahead that three quarterbacks combined for only 18 pass attempts. It was a complete domination—BYU’s defense forced nine tackles for loss and held Portland State to 51 total yards—and that type of box score often drives double‑digit lines. Computer models reflect the mismatch; various public simulations listed by the Arizona Republic show predicted finals such as BYU 34–15, 30.9–19 and 34.4–16, which generally fall just under the betting spread.
Why Stanford May Be Undervalued
1. Ground game can control tempo. Interim head coach Frank Reich has said that the Cardinal will be a run‑first team this season, and Week 0 showed why. Stanford ran the ball 43 times for 177 yards against Hawai‘i, with sophomore Micah Ford posting 113 yards on 26 carries and transfer Sedrick Irvin adding 46 yards on 10 carries. The Cardinal put together a 20‑play, 85‑yard drive that consumed over nine minutes before Ford’s go‑ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter. A ball‑control attack not only shortens games but also keeps explosive offenses like BYU’s on the sideline. On3 noted that Stanford’s running game “looks better than it did in 2021” and the defensive line has more life, giving hope that improved line play could translate into wins if the passing game improves.
2. New leadership and renewed energy. Stanford is operating under a unique structure this season. Former NFL head coach Frank Reich is the interim coach and Andrew Luck, the school’s iconic alumnus, now serves as the program’s general manager. While the opener at Hawai‘i ended in a last‑second 23–20 defeat, the program showed energy on both sides of the ball; Stanford jumped out to a 10‑0 lead thanks to a defensive touchdown and field goal, and the defense recorded a strip‑sack that led to a touchdown. The Cardinals’ physical style under Reich should translate better in a lower‑scoring game with BYU.
3. Quarterback situation is improving. Veteran quarterback Ben Gulbranson, an Oregon State transfer, struggled in his debut (15/30 for 109 yards and one interception). Reich admitted the passing game was not good enough and said the offense left “three or four” explosive plays on the field. Despite speculation about a switch, Reich confirmed they would stick with Gulbranson for Week 2, giving the sixth‑year senior a chance to rebound. The On3 report pointed out that Stanford has viable options behind him—redshirt freshman Elijah Brown and UCF transfer Dylan Rizk—suggesting the staff won’t hesitate to make a change if necessary. An improved passing attack, even if merely competent, would keep BYU’s defense honest and open running lanes for Ford.
4. Familiarity with BYU’s personnel. BYU starting quarterback Bear Bachmeier and his brother Tiger were originally Stanford recruits before transferring to Provo. Stanford’s coaches spent part of the spring evaluating them, and that familiarity could aid the defensive game plan. Bachmeier attempted only 11 passes against Portland State; if Stanford can make him beat them through the air, their knowledge of his tendencies may prove valuable.
5. Historical series is closer than people think. These programs have only met three times, and Stanford leads the series 2–1 with victories in 2003 and 2004; BYU’s lone win came in 2022. While historical outcomes do not dictate present games, the lack of familiarity means double‑digit spreads may be inflated.
Handicapping the Total
The total has hovered around 47.5–48 points. BYU’s 69‑point explosion skewed early metrics, but that came against a Portland State team that has been outscored 111–0 through two games. Stanford’s run‑heavy approach and BYU’s willingness to lean on their ground game suggest fewer possessions and a running clock. Most projection models listed by the Arizona Republic produced finals in the 34–15 to 35–20 range—scores that fall below the current total. Our model predicts a 45–10 BYU win, but we caution that the majority of input data comes from last season when both rosters were different.
Pick and Prediction
BYU should win this game at home; the Cougars have a more polished roster, dynamic skill players and a defense that looked dominant in the opener. However, laying 18½ points against a motivated, improved Stanford team is risky. The Cardinal demonstrated the ability to sustain long drives and run the ball effectively, and Frank Reich’s emphasis on physicality should translate into a lower‑variance contest. Stanford also benefits from an extra week to prepare and will likely attack BYU’s freshman quarterback with looks he hasn’t seen before. Given those factors and the limited data available, the play is to take Stanford +18.5 and look for the game to be played in the mid‑40s. BYU likely wins, but the Cardinal have enough improvements to stay within the number.