Kansas State at Arizona: Friday Night Revenge
The Kansas State Wildcats travel to Tucson for a Friday night showdown against Arizona in what should be one of the more interesting games of Week 3. With Arizona favored by 1 point and a total set at 54.5 (MyBookie), this matchup presents a betting opportunity that goes well beyond the tight spread.
The Revenge Factor
Last season’s meeting in Manhattan wasn’t even close, with Kansas State dominating Arizona 31-7 as the Wildcats rolled to an easy cover. That lopsided result now works in Arizona’s favor as they get their chance for revenge on home turf. The revenge angle in college football is often overplayed, but when combined with the dramatic role reversal we’ve seen from these programs in 2025, it carries added weight.
Two Programs Heading in Opposite Directions
The narrative couldn’t be more different for these two teams entering Friday night. Kansas State has gone from preseason Big 12 favorite to dumpster fire in a few short weeks and has yet to cover a spread, while Arizona looks completely transformed from last year’s disappointing 4-8 campaign.
Kansas State entered the season ranked 17th nationally but has been one of college football’s biggest early-season disappointments. Kansas State lost to Iowa State in Week 0 in Ireland 24-21 as two-point favorites, then barely got by North Dakota last week by winning 38-35 as four-touchdown favorites. Kansas State was a 17-point favorite vs. Army on Saturday and lost 24-21. The Wildcats are now 1-2 and 0-3 against the spread, showing troubling signs across the board.
Meanwhile, Arizona has been the pleasant surprise of the early season. The Arizona Wildcats are one of two teams yet to allow a touchdown. They’re 2-0 and look vastly improved from last year’s 4-8 squad. Under head coach Brent Brennan, the Wildcats have already matched their entire 2024 season total for spread covers in just two games.
Defensive Transformation in Tucson
Arizona’s defensive improvement has been remarkable. They rank Top 25 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball, and their ability to keep opponents out of the end zone has been elite. The unit has allowed just 4.5 points per game, ranking 4th nationally, while surrendering only 91.5 rushing yards per contest.
However, Kansas State will provide Arizona’s first real test. Arizona’s defense has played well, allowing just 3.6 yards per play, but it has benefited from playing Hawaii with an injured starting quarterback and an FCS school. The competition level steps up significantly against a Big 12 opponent, even one that’s struggling.
Kansas State’s Offensive Potential
Despite their early struggles, Kansas State possesses offensive talent that could exploit Arizona’s defense. Avery Johnson is a dangerous dual-threat. He faces an Arizona defense that allowed 31.8 ppg and 413 yards per game a season ago, and not enough has changed that Johnson & Co. will be kept out of the end zone.
The Wildcats are averaging 6.3 yards per play this season, suggesting they can move the ball when things click. Their biggest issue has been consistency and finishing drives, but the talent is clearly there for a breakout performance.
Arizona’s Offensive Evolution
On the other side, Arizona’s offense has been efficient under quarterback Noah Fifita. Noah Fifita is primed for a bounceback season and has tossed six touchdowns to no interceptions while averaging 11.9 yards per attempt. The Wildcats are averaging 44.0 points per game, ranking 23rd nationally, and 450.0 yards per game.
Arizona wants to play fast this year under offensive coordinator Seth Doege, and this is our first real chance of seeing that tempo play out in a game. The up-tempo approach could be particularly effective against a Kansas State defense that has shown vulnerabilities.
The Betting Angles
The Side: Arizona -1
The market has this game essentially as a pick’em, but several factors favor the home Wildcats. Arizona is riding momentum with two convincing covers to start the season, while Kansas State has failed to cover in seven of their last eight games. The home field advantage in a Friday night environment in Tucson shouldn’t be underestimated.
More importantly, Kansas State has shown vulnerabilities in the secondary (88th in EPA per pass), which Fifita will look to exploit. Arizona’s offensive coordinator has implemented an up-tempo system that could catch Kansas State off-guard, especially on a short week of preparation.
The revenge factor adds another layer, as Arizona gets to avenge last year’s embarrassing 31-7 loss. While revenge games don’t always play out as expected, the combination of Arizona’s improved play and Kansas State’s early-season struggles makes the home favorite the logical choice.
The Total: Over 54.5
Despite Arizona’s defensive improvements, this total appears too low for several reasons. With two good quarterbacks squaring off on a Friday night, I expect both to have success. Both offenses have shown the ability to put up points when clicking.
Kansas State, despite their struggles, is averaging 26.7 points per game and has the talent to find the end zone against Arizona’s defense. Meanwhile, Arizona’s offense has been explosive, averaging 44.0 points per game in their first two contests.
The pace of play factor cannot be ignored. Arizona’s desire to play fast under their new offensive system could lead to more possessions and subsequently more scoring opportunities for both teams.
Bottom Line
Take Arizona -1 and the Over 54.5. The Wildcats are the better team right now, playing with confidence at home in what should be an emotional revenge game. Kansas State’s early-season struggles are real, and while they have the talent to bounce back eventually, Friday night in Tucson isn’t the spot for that turnaround.
The total offers even more value, as two capable offenses should be able to push this game over a modest number, especially with Arizona’s up-tempo approach creating additional possessions.