Bills at Jets Week 2 Betting Preview: Buffalo Brings Championship Pedigree to MetLife
Game Details:
- When: Sunday, September 14, 2025 at 1:00 PM ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
- TV: CBS
- Spread: Bills -6.5 at MyBookie
- Total: 46.5
The Case for Buffalo (-6.5)
The Bills enter Week 2 riding the momentum of one of the most remarkable comebacks in recent NFL history. Trailing Baltimore 40-25 with just 3:25 remaining, Buffalo became only the fourth team since 2000 to overcome a 15+ point deficit in the final four minutes, winning 41-40 on Sunday Night Football.
Josh Allen’s fourth-quarter heroics cannot be understated. The reigning MVP threw for 251 yards and three touchdowns in the final frame alone, posting a 131.3 passer rating when his team needed him most. This type of clutch performance exemplifies why Buffalo has covered the spread at an impressive 11-5 rate over their last 16 games.
Offensive Firepower Travels Well
Buffalo’s offensive consistency is remarkable – they’ve now scored 30+ points in 10 consecutive games started by Allen dating back to Week 7 of last season. The supporting cast has evolved nicely, with second-year receiver Keon Coleman establishing himself as a legitimate threat after hauling in eight catches for 112 yards and a touchdown against Baltimore’s defense.
Running back James Cook, fresh off a $46 million extension, totaled 102 yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown in the opener. While Cook operates in a committee approach, his all-purpose skillset makes him a consistent threat in this high-powered offense.
Defensive Matchup Advantage
The Jets’ defensive struggles from Week 1 present a golden opportunity for Buffalo’s explosive offense. New York allowed 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers to complete 22 of 30 passes for 244 yards and four touchdowns with zero interceptions. If a stationary pocket passer like Rodgers can dissect the Jets’ secondary, imagine the damage Allen’s dual-threat capability can inflict.
Buffalo’s trend of success against AFC East opponents (8-1 straight up in their last nine divisional games) and their perfect 8-0 record when favored by 4.5+ points (6-2 ATS) speaks to their ability to handle business in spots like this.
The Case for the Over (46.5)
Both offenses showcased explosive potential in their season openers, combining for 73 points in Week 1 action. The Over has hit in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games and 7 of the Jets’ last 8 contests, suggesting both units are built to produce points.
Jets’ Offensive Emergence
Despite the loss, New York’s offensive performance against Pittsburgh was genuinely encouraging. The unit finished fourth in EPA per play and fourth in success rate, with Justin Fields efficiently managing the game while adding dual-threat capabilities. Fields completed 16 of 22 passes for 218 yards and one touchdown while adding 48 rushing yards and two ground scores.
The ground game particularly impressed, with the Jets accumulating 182 rushing yards on 39 carries (4.7 yards per attempt) against a Steelers defense anchored by T.J. Watt. Breece Hall’s 107-yard rushing performance demonstrated the explosive potential of this backfield.
Defensive Vulnerabilities on Both Sides
Buffalo’s defensive youth showed against Baltimore, surrendering 238 rushing yards on just 29 carries – an alarming 8.2 yards per attempt. The Bills allowed 10 runs of at least 10 yards and three explosive runs of 30+ yards, indicating serious run-fit issues that the Jets’ dynamic ground game can exploit.
Conversely, the Jets’ defensive struggles against basic offensive concepts don’t bode well for containing Allen’s multifaceted attack. If Pittsburgh’s limited offensive weapons could generate 34 points, Buffalo’s superior talent should find even more success.
Historical Context and Trends
Buffalo holds a commanding 8-2 straight-up record against the Jets over their last 10 meetings and has won three straight in this series (3-0 ATS). The Bills’ 8-1 record against AFC East opponents over their last nine divisional games demonstrates their division dominance under Sean McDermott.
However, the Jets have shown value as home underdogs, and with whispers of sharp money potentially backing New York if the line reaches seven points, there’s respect for this spot from the betting market.
The Bottom Line
Buffalo’s offensive ceiling, demonstrated clutch factor, and superior quarterback play make them the logical choice to cover the 6.5-point spread. Allen’s ability to exploit man coverage concepts – which new Jets defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn favors – presents a significant schematic advantage.
For the total, both offenses showed explosive capabilities in Week 1, while both defenses displayed concerning vulnerabilities. In a divisional rivalry where both teams will be motivated to put points on the board, the Over 46.5 offers solid value.
Recommended Plays:
- Bills -6.5 at MyBookie
- Over 46.5
The combination of Buffalo’s proven championship-level offense, Allen’s MVP-caliber play, and both defenses’ early-season struggles points toward a Bills victory in a high-scoring affair at MetLife Stadium.