Colts vs Titans Week 3 Betting Preview: Indianapolis Poised to Continue Hot Start

Game Details:

• Date: Saturday, September 21, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
• TV: CBS
• Spread: Colts -4 (Betonline)
• Total: 43.5 (MyBookie)

The Bottom Line

The Indianapolis Colts travel to Nashville as 4-point road favorites against the winless Tennessee Titans. With the Colts ranking 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential while the Titans sit dead last in that crucial metric, Indianapolis appears primed to cover the spread and move to 3-0.

Colts Offense Firing on All Cylinders

Indianapolis enters this matchup with one of the most balanced and efficient offenses in the early going. The quarterback position has been a revelation, with the signal-caller posting 588 passing yards through two games without an interception. This offensive efficiency has been complemented by a dominant ground game led by Jonathan Taylor, who ranks first in the NFL with 236 rushing yards.

The Colts’ offensive coordinator has crafted a system that maximizes both the passing and rushing attacks. In their recent 29-28 victory over Denver, they accumulated 473 total yards and 7.1 yards per play against a vaunted Broncos defense. This balanced approach should prove particularly effective against a Tennessee defense that has struggled to find consistency.

Tennessee’s Offensive Struggles Continue

The Titans enter this contest averaging just 192.5 yards per game, ranking dead last in the NFL. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward has shown flashes but remains inconsistent, averaging only 143.5 passing yards per game with a concerning completion percentage that improved from 42.9% in Week 1 to 57.6% in Week 2.

The concerning trend for Tennessee is their inability to sustain drives and convert in the red zone. They’ve managed just one touchdown through two games, relying heavily on field goals to generate points. This inefficiency becomes magnified against a Colts defense that has already forced four turnovers this season.

Key Statistical Edges

The yards per play differential tells the complete story of this matchup. Indianapolis ranks 4th in the NFL in this crucial metric, indicating their ability to generate explosive plays on offense while limiting them on defense. Conversely, Tennessee’s last-place ranking in this category reveals their struggles on both sides of the ball.

Additional statistical advantages for Indianapolis include:

• Colts averaging 445.5 yards per game (2nd in NFL) vs Titans’ 192.5 (32nd)
• Indianapolis converting efficiently on third downs while Tennessee struggles at 6-of-15 on third down attempts
• Colts defense forcing turnovers at a high rate with four takeaways in two games

Historical Context and Betting Trends

Indianapolis has dominated this matchup recently, winning four straight games against Tennessee since 2023. However, these contests have typically been close, with all four victories coming by eight points or less. This historical context initially suggests the game could remain within the number.

From a betting perspective, several trends favor different sides:

Supporting Tennessee +4:

• Teams starting 0-2 have covered at an impressive 44-24 ATS (64.7%) rate since 2013
• The Titans posted a 4-2-1 ATS mark as home underdogs last season
• Home teams have covered in six of Indianapolis’ last seven games

Supporting Indianapolis -4:

• Colts are 9-5 ATS as favorites and 17-9 ATS against conference opponents
• Indianapolis has covered in each of their last six September games against AFC opponents
• The Titans have failed to cover in each of their last nine home games

The Coaching Factor

Shane Steichen has proven adept at game-planning against AFC South opponents, particularly in establishing the ground game. His offensive system has unlocked the potential of his skill position players, creating mismatches that should prove advantageous against Tennessee’s defense.

Meanwhile, Brian Callahan faces the challenge of developing a rookie quarterback while trying to establish an identity for his team. The pressure of an 0-2 start adds urgency, but it also creates potential for mistakes against a disciplined Colts squad.

Our Prediction and Best Bet

The statistical disparities, combined with the Colts’ superior offensive efficiency and Tennessee’s struggles to generate consistent offense, point toward Indianapolis covering the 4-point spread. The yards per play differential alone suggests the Colts should control this game from start to finish.

While divisional games often remain competitive regardless of talent gaps, the current form of both teams indicates Indianapolis should pull away in the second half. The Titans have shown a troubling pattern of fading late in games, allowing opponents to extend leads in the final quarters.

Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts -4

The Colts have the superior talent, better coaching, and favorable statistical trends. With Tennessee ranking last in yards per play differential and Indianapolis sitting 4th, this spread appears conservative for what could develop into a comfortable road victory for the visitors.

Predicted Final Score: Colts 27, Titans 17