Nebraska at Maryland: Terrapins Look to Bounce Back as Home Dogs
October 11, 2025 – 3:30 PM ET – SECU Stadium, College Park, MD
The Maryland Terrapins find themselves in a difficult spot heading into Saturday’s matchup against Nebraska. After suffering a devastating 24-20 home loss to Washington last week, where they squandered a 20-0 lead and allowed three unanswered touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the Terps must now regroup as 6.5-point home underdogs against the Cornhuskers.
The Betting Landscape
Nebraska comes in as road favorites at -6.5, with the total sitting at 49.5 at MyBookie. Some books still show Maryland +7, offering value for those backing the home team. Our model projects this game as a dead heat at 19-19, suggesting significant value on Maryland getting nearly a touchdown.
Fourth Quarter Fortunes
The tale of two fourth quarters tells an interesting story heading into this matchup. While Maryland collapsed against Washington, surrendering 21 unanswered points in the final frame, Nebraska showed their resilience against Michigan State, outscoring the Spartans 17-6 in the fourth quarter to secure a 38-27 win.
Both teams sit at 4-1, but momentum feels vastly different. Nebraska turned a corner with their comeback against Michigan State, while Maryland faces questions about whether they can mentally recover from such a crushing defeat.
Statistical Breakdown
Nebraska’s defense has been exceptional against the pass this season, allowing just 91.8 passing yards per game – tops in the nation. They’re surrendering only 247.4 total yards per contest, ranking 11th nationally. However, their run defense has shown some vulnerability, giving up 155.6 yards per game on the ground at 4.5 yards per carry.
Maryland’s offense managed just 274 total yards against Washington, including a meager 55 rushing yards at 2.8 yards per attempt. The Terrapins converted 9 of 17 third-down attempts but struggled to maintain their early momentum. Quarterback Malik Washington completed 30 of 49 passes for 219 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the loss.
On the other side, Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola has been steady if not spectacular, completing 16 of 24 passes for 194 yards against Michigan State. The rushing attack, led by Emmett Johnson’s three-touchdown performance, has been the catalyst for the Cornhuskers’ recent success. Johnson ranks among the FBS leaders with eight touchdowns this season.
Key Matchup Factors
Maryland’s ability to run the football will be crucial. They managed just 55 yards on the ground against Washington and now face a Nebraska defense that has been stout but not impenetrable against the rush. The Terrapins need to establish balance to keep Nebraska’s pass rush at bay and open up play-action opportunities.
The Cornhuskers’ first true road test of the season adds another layer of intrigue. Their only previous game away from Lincoln was at a neutral site (Arrowhead Stadium) that was dominated by Nebraska fans. Playing in front of a hostile crowd at SECU Stadium presents a different challenge entirely.
Trends and ATS Performance
Maryland’s defense has been exceptional in specific situations, ranking first among FBS teams in limiting second-quarter scoring to just 0.6 points per game. However, their fourth-quarter collapse against Washington exposed potential late-game vulnerabilities.
Nebraska’s defense has struggled on fourth downs, allowing conversions at an 81.8% clip – ranking 133rd nationally. This could be significant if Maryland finds themselves in must-convert situations.
The Betting Angle
While our model shows this game as even, the emotional and psychological factors cannot be ignored. Maryland’s collapse was the type of loss that can derail a season – they gave up the largest third-quarter lead (17 points) to lose a game this season among FBS teams. How they respond will define their campaign moving forward.
The line movement from Maryland +7 to +6.5 at most books suggests some sharp money on the Terrapins, but the question remains whether this team can put last week’s disaster behind them.
The Pick
We’re leaning toward Maryland +7 where available, but with significant caution. The mathematical value is there – our model showing a pick ’em game while getting nearly a touchdown makes this attractive from a pure numbers perspective. However, the psychological impact of last week’s collapse cannot be quantified easily.
For those considering the total, both teams have shown defensive capabilities, but Maryland’s offensive struggles and Nebraska’s ability to control games with their rushing attack point toward the under 49.5 as a potential play.
This shapes up as a pivotal game for both programs. Nebraska looks to prove they can win on the road against quality competition, while Maryland desperately needs to show they can respond to adversity. The Terrapins have the talent to keep this close, but whether they have the mental fortitude after last week’s implosion remains the biggest question mark.
Lean: Maryland +7 (use caution)
Total consideration: Under 49.5