Oklahoma Sooners at South Carolina Gamecocks: Can the Sooners Bounce Back in Columbia?

Game Details: Saturday, October 18, 2025
Location: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
Spread: Oklahoma -5.5
Total: 43
Odds via MyBookie

Season Context

The Gamecocks entered 2025 with elevated expectations, racing to a 2-0 start before reality set in hard. Three losses in their next four contests have derailed South Carolina’s season, with defeats to Vanderbilt, Missouri, and most recently a 20-10 setback to LSU. That loss could have been far more lopsided—the Tigers racked up over 400 yards of offense while the Gamecocks struggled to generate any consistent offensive rhythm.

Oklahoma’s season hit its first major roadblock last week when the Sooners fell from the unbeaten ranks, dropping a 23-6 decision to rival Texas. The loss was a wake-up call for a team that had looked like a legitimate playoff contender through their first five games.

Defensive Dominance Meets Offensive Struggles

The matchup comes down to one critical question: Can South Carolina’s offense do anything against Oklahoma’s elite run defense?

The Sooners rank 5th nationally in rushing yards allowed, anchoring their defensive identity with an ability to shut down ground games. For a South Carolina team that ranks 87th in passing, the math becomes simple but problematic. If the Gamecocks can’t establish the run, they’ll be forced into obvious passing situations against a defense built to take advantage of exactly that scenario.

Statistical Edge

The numbers paint a clear picture of Oklahoma’s advantages. The Sooners post a yards-per-point mark of 13.1 on offense and 19.9 on defense, demonstrating efficiency on both sides of the ball. South Carolina checks in at 16.7 offensively and 17.0 defensively—respectable but not in the same class.

The advanced metrics tell an even more decisive story. Oklahoma holds edges in both yards per rush attempt differential (+1.1 to -1.1) and yards per play differential (+1.4 to -0.2). Those margins represent significant structural advantages that typically translate to on-field success.

The Counterargument

Before penciling in an easy Sooners cover, consider two factors working in South Carolina’s favor. First, the Gamecocks have faced considerably tougher competition to this point, which partially explains their statistical profile. Second, the home-field advantage at Williams-Brice Stadium cannot be dismissed—South Carolina’s fanbase creates one of the more hostile environments in the SEC.

ATS and Trends

Both teams arrive with something to prove. Oklahoma needs to demonstrate their playoff credentials weren’t a mirage exposed by Texas. South Carolina desperately needs a signature win to salvage a season that’s threatening to spiral into complete disappointment.

The Sooners’ ability to control the line of scrimmage should translate to ball control and clock management—critical factors when trying to quiet a hostile road crowd. If Oklahoma can force South Carolina into predictable third-and-long situations, their defensive front should feast.

The Pick

This shapes up as a low-scoring affair between two teams trying to reestablish their identity. Oklahoma’s defensive superiority, particularly against the run, should neutralize South Carolina’s best chance to control the game. While the Gamecocks’ home environment and schedule strength provide some pause, the fundamental matchup advantages favor the Sooners.

Pick: Oklahoma -5.5
Projected Score: Oklahoma 19, South Carolina 10

The model suggests a nine-point Sooner win, making the 5.5-point spread a solid play. Additionally, with both offenses expected to struggle—Oklahoma trying to find their rhythm after the Texas loss and South Carolina unable to move the ball consistently—the under 43 deserves serious consideration as well.

Oklahoma gets back on track with a workmanlike road win, keeping their playoff hopes alive while sending South Carolina back to the drawing board.