Colts Look to Continue Dominance as Road Favorites Against Struggling Steelers
Sunday, November 2, 2025 | 1:00 PM EST | Acrisure Stadium
Indianapolis Colts (7-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
Line: Colts -3 | Total: 50.5 at MyBookie
The Indianapolis Colts bring the NFL’s best record into Pittsburgh this Sunday, riding a four-game win streak and showing why they deserve respect as legitimate contenders. While critics point to their relatively soft schedule and their sole loss coming against a quality Rams team, the numbers tell a different story about this Colts squad.
The Statistical Edge
The Colts dominate several key metrics that typically translate to wins. They rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential at +1.1, while Pittsburgh sits at 18th with -0.2. Indianapolis also excels in efficiency metrics, ranking 3rd in defensive yards per point at 17.9 (Pittsburgh 8th at 15.4) and leading the entire league in offensive yards per point at 11.4 (Pittsburgh 3rd at 11.9).
These numbers aren’t just statistical noise – they represent a team that maximizes its opportunities on both sides of the ball. When we apply the yards per play formula for creating a point spread, it produces a Colts -6.5 line, suggesting significant value on Indianapolis at just -3.
Division Stakes and Pressure Points
The Colts sit comfortably atop the AFC South with a 7-1 record, three games ahead of the Jaguars at 4-3. This cushion allows them to play with confidence and aggression. Pittsburgh faces a completely different scenario – at 4-3, they hold first place in the AFC North but have zero margin for error. The Bengals trail by just one game, and the Ravens have Jackson back from injury, making this division race increasingly tight.
For Pittsburgh, this would mark back-to-back home losses if they fall Sunday, a concerning trend for a team that needs every win to maintain their division lead. The pressure differential between these teams could prove significant.
Offensive Firepower Meets Defensive Struggles
Indianapolis enters averaging an NFL-best 33.8 points per game, having scored 31 or more in six contests this season. Jonathan Taylor has already surpassed his touchdown total from last season with 12 scores through just eight games. The Colts rank first in total yards per game and have shown explosive capability against both strong and weak defenses.
Pittsburgh’s defense has shown concerning cracks recently, surrendering at least 340 passing yards in consecutive games against Cincinnati and Green Bay. They rank 30th in yards allowed per game and have given up at least two touchdown passes in five of their last six contests. This vulnerability through the air plays directly into Indianapolis’s hands, as Daniel Jones has thrown nine touchdowns over his last four games.
Historical Trends and Matchup History
The betting trends heavily favor Indianapolis in this spot. The Colts have won eight straight against AFC opponents and have covered the spread in six consecutive games within the conference. They’ve also scored the first touchdown in eight straight road games against AFC teams – a trend that could prove crucial given the total.
Pittsburgh has dropped five straight against teams on winning streaks and failed to cover in five of their last six as underdogs following a loss. While the Steelers have won nine consecutive November games against AFC South opponents, that streak faces its toughest test against this Colts team.
The recent head-to-head history favors Indianapolis, as they’ve won two straight against Pittsburgh, including a 27-24 home win last season. Notably, five straight meetings between these teams have gone over the total, suggesting offensive fireworks could be in store.
The Model’s Perspective
Our proprietary model projects this game as a 35-23 Colts win, strongly supporting both Indianapolis -3 and the over 50.5. The projected 58-point total sits well above the posted number, while the 12-point margin suggests the Colts should handle the spread comfortably.
Additionally, our second-half model shows Indianapolis winning the final two quarters by 8.5 points. With some books posting a pregame second-half line of Colts -1.5, this represents another potential edge for sharp bettors.
Sunday’s Best Bets
The Colts’ statistical superiority, combined with Pittsburgh’s mounting pressure and defensive struggles, creates a perfect storm for Indianapolis to cover as road favorites. While the Steelers desperately need this game to keep pace in their division, desperation doesn’t always translate to execution.
Pittsburgh has managed just 21.6 points per game at home this season, well below their road average of 27.5. Against a Colts team that has proven it can score against anyone, the Steelers’ offensive limitations could prove costly.
The Play: Take the Colts -3 and strongly consider the over 50.5. For those with access to second-half lines, the Colts -1.5 in the second half offers exceptional value based on our modeling.
The numbers, trends, and situational factors all point toward Indianapolis continuing their impressive season with another road win. In a game where both our statistical analysis and yards per play calculations suggest the Colts should be favored by more than a touchdown, getting them at just a field goal presents clear value.