Seahawks at Rams: NFC West Titans Battle for Division Supremacy
Two of the NFL’s best teams meet Sunday when the Seattle Seahawks travel to SoFi Stadium to face the Los Angeles Rams. Both teams enter with identical 7-2 records atop the NFC West, making this showdown crucial for division positioning and playoff seeding.
Elite Statistical Profiles
The numbers reveal why both teams are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Seattle leads the entire NFL with a +1.7 yards per play differential, while the Rams sit fifth at +1.0. These advanced metrics provide a more complete picture than traditional statistics. Consider the Cleveland Browns, who rank second in yards allowed but have the worst defensive yards per point number in the NFL at 11.3. Poor field position and turnovers mean opponents don’t need to travel far to score against Cleveland.
The Rams own the league’s best defensive yards per point allowed at 18.4, with Seattle close behind at third with 16.1. Offensively, the Seahawks share the NFL’s best yards per point number at 11.8 (tied with Detroit), while Los Angeles ranks tenth at a respectable 13.4.
Both teams also rank among the league’s elite in traditional scoring metrics. Seattle sits third in scoring offense and fifth in scoring defense, while the Rams rank second in scoring defense and fifth in scoring offense.
The Quarterback Matchup
Matthew Stafford has been phenomenal for the Rams, throwing 25 touchdowns against just two interceptions through nine games. His recent form has been historic – he’s thrown four or more touchdown passes without an interception in three straight games, the longest regular season streak in NFL history. Since Week 4, Stafford has 20 touchdown passes without a pick. He’s also 5-0 against Seattle since joining the Rams in 2021.
Sam Darnold has exceeded expectations in Seattle, leading the NFL with 9.9 yards per attempt this season. That efficiency has helped power the Seahawks’ explosive offense, though his 17 touchdowns to 6 interceptions ratio pales compared to Stafford’s remarkable numbers.
Key Trends and Angles
The Seahawks have won their last five games as road underdogs, demonstrating their ability to thrive in tough environments. They’re also perfect on the road this season at 4-0. However, the Rams have covered in eight of their last 10 games overall and are riding a four-game winning streak where they’ve covered each time.
The over has hit in four of the Rams’ last five games against NFC opponents, suggesting shootout potential when they face conference rivals. Both teams’ offensive firepower supports this trend.
The Handicapping Perspective
Using yards per play differential alone would make Seattle a 1.5-point favorite. However, our predictive model sees this differently, projecting a 26-20 Rams win. The model incorporates multiple factors beyond a single metric, providing a more comprehensive handicap.
Stafford’s elite play during the Rams’ winning streak gives them a significant edge. His ability to protect the football while producing explosive plays has been the difference during their surge. The home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium, where Stafford has dominated Seattle previously, adds another layer to the Rams’ favor.
The Betting Strategy
Rather than targeting the full game spread at Rams -3, we’re focusing on second-half action where we project the Rams winning by six points after halftime. The pre-game second half line sits at Rams -1.5 at most books, offering substantial value based on our projections.
Main Play: Rams -1.5 second half
We’ll also take a smaller position on Rams -3 for the full game at BetOnline. While this hits the key number, our model’s confidence in a Rams win justifies the play.
Injury Considerations
Both teams have manageable injury situations. Seattle will be without center Jalen Sundell and defensive end Rylie Mills, while several players including linebacker Ernest Jones IV carry questionable tags. The Rams list star receiver DaVante Adams (who leads the NFL with nine receiving touchdowns) as questionable with an oblique issue, though he’s expected to play.
Looking Ahead
These division rivals meet again in Seattle on December 18th, adding stakes to Sunday’s contest. The winner gains a crucial tiebreaker that could determine the NFC West champion and potentially secure a first-round bye or home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
With both teams tied with Philadelphia for the best record in the NFC, Sunday’s outcome impacts the entire conference playoff picture. Expect a hard-fought game between two elite teams, with the Rams’ home advantage and Stafford’s current form giving them the edge in what should be one of Week 11’s premier matchups.