Alabama vs Indiana – Rose Bowl CFP Quarterfinal Prediction
New Year’s Day | January 1st, 2025 | 4:00 PM ET | ESPN
Line: Indiana -7 | Total: 48 (MyBookie)
If someone had told you just a few years ago that the Indiana Hoosiers would be favored by 7 over Alabama in a College Football Playoff game, you’d have thought they were crazy. But NIL has leveled the playing field and here we are. Indiana coach Curt Cignetti has his Hoosiers in the playoffs for the second year in a row, and this year’s team is significantly better than last season’s squad.
We can say the Big Ten plays a weaker schedule than the SEC. But what we can’t say is that Indiana doesn’t belong here. They are the only undefeated FBS team, and while they beat the teams they were supposed to beat, they also beat the teams some thought they shouldn’t. They went on the road and knocked off Oregon, and they beat Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. They proved they belong and now look to stay unbeaten for another week and punch their ticket to the semifinals.
In an interesting twist, Cignetti has history with Alabama. He served as an assistant for the Crimson Tide from 2007 to 2011 before eventually building his own coaching resume. Whether that provides extra motivation remains to be seen, but his team certainly looks ready to make a statement. This will be the first-ever meeting between these two programs on the football field.
The Numbers Favor Indiana
Statistically speaking, this one favors the Hoosiers across the board:
Defensive Yards Per Point: Indiana ranks #2 in the nation at 23.2. Alabama sits at 33rd with a number of 16.
Offensive Yards Per Point: Indiana #4 at 11.6. Alabama #15 at 12.5.
Yards Per Rush Attempt Differential: Indiana #5 in the nation at +2.2. Alabama 95th in the nation at -0.7.
Yards Per Play Differential: Indiana is #4 at +2. Alabama #43 at +0.5.
The advanced metrics tell a similar story. Indiana leads the nation in EPA per play and ranks fourth in EPA per play allowed. Alabama, on the other hand, ranks just 41st in net yards per play and 76th in yards per play, averaging only 5.4 yards per snap. This is clearly not the Alabama of the Nick Saban era.
Quarterback Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy after a spectacular season, completing over 71% of his passes for nearly 3,000 yards with 33 touchdowns against just six interceptions. He also contributed on the ground with over 240 rushing yards and six more scores. He’s the engine that makes this Indiana offense go.
Betting Trends Worth Noting
The under has hit in five of Alabama’s last six games, which aligns with our lean on the total. Indiana has covered in eight of their last twelve games, while Alabama is 9-3-1 ATS in their last thirteen.
One concerning trend for Indiana: they’re just 3-11 straight up in their last 14 games against SEC opponents. However, this particular Alabama team is nowhere near the caliber of recent Crimson Tide squads.
Kalen DeBoer has been solid as an underdog in his coaching career, posting a 9-3 straight up record and 10-2 against the spread when getting points. Alabama is also 5-1 both straight up and ATS off a bye week under DeBoer.
Weather Conditions
The forecast calls for cloudy skies with the likelihood of showers throughout the game. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s at kickoff and settle into the 60s as the afternoon progresses. Not the picture-perfect Rose Bowl weather, but conditions both teams can work with.
Our Take
We can talk schedule strength and the SEC all day long, but the fact remains that one team beat everyone that was put in front of them this year—including two playoff teams—while the other came up short three times, including a drubbing in the SEC title game against Georgia.
Our model has Indiana on top here by a score of 24-10. We think it will be this Indiana defense that will ultimately be the difference in this game. We’re not crazy about laying -7 in a big spot like this, as there’s no question the Tide are a formidable opponent and capable of winning this game. But this edition of Alabama is nowhere close in talent to teams of the recent past.
Alabama’s offense struggled mightily in the first round against Oklahoma, managing just a single first down in the entire first half. While they rallied to win that game, expecting that kind of slow start against a defense as good as Indiana’s could be fatal.
Indiana wins this game by 10, close to the model’s score. 24-14 sounds about right. We’ll also make a small play on under 48.
PICK: Indiana -7
PICK: Under 48