SUPER BOWL LX: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Sunday, February 8, 2026 | 6:30 PM ET | Levi’s Stadium | NBC Line: Seahawks -4.5 | Total: 45.5
Well, here we are. Another football season is in the books and we’re left with one game. Thankfully, we got the best possible matchup. These two teams have been the best in their respective conferences all year long, and Super Bowl LX figures to be a heavyweight battle between two well-balanced squads.
The numbers and metrics we like to look at aren’t going to provide much separation here as these teams are remarkably close. The Seahawks do hold a slight edge across the board though. We’re specifically referring to yards per point and yards per play differentials. Seattle’s yards per play differential sits at +1.2 while New England’s number is +1.0 — the two best in the NFL. Converting that to a pointspread would have the Seahawks favored by roughly -1.5.
As for our model: using full season data, it projects a 26-17 Seattle win. Using data from just the last seven games, the model says 21-17 Seattle. Using data from the last four games, the model says 11-10 Seattle. So it’s an across-the-board sweep for Seattle, with the margin shrinking as we use shorter time frame parameters. Important to note that the Seahawks played the more difficult schedule down the stretch.
THE MATCHUP
Both teams finished the 2025 regular season at 14-3, arriving at this game via different paths. The Patriots boast a slightly more prolific total offense (ranked 3rd in total yards per game at 379.4), while the Seahawks possess the league’s most dominant scoring defense (ranked 1st), allowing just 17.2 points per game.
Seattle leads the league in third-down defense, converting just 32.1% of opponents’ attempts. Their front seven, anchored by Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence, creates consistent pressure and makes running the ball an adventure. The Seahawks allowed just 3.7 yards per carry this season — best in the NFL — and opponents averaged only 91.9 rushing yards per game against them (3rd overall).
New England’s path to Santa Clara deserves some scrutiny. By most metrics, the Patriots faced the easiest schedule in the NFL during the regular season. In the playoffs, they beat two offenses that ranked in the bottom-10 in EPA. In the AFC Championship, they faced backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham and still nearly lost in a weather-shortened affair. We respect what New England has accomplished under Mike Vrabel in his first season, but we’re inclined to apply some skepticism based on the competition level.
The Patriots’ offensive line struggled mightily in pass protection this season, allowing 48 sacks (ranked 23rd). Compare that to Seattle’s offensive line, which allowed just 27 sacks and ranked 5th in pass-block efficiency. That’s a significant advantage for Sam Darnold, who will have time to find Jaxon Smith-Njigba — the NFL’s leading receiver with 1,793 yards.
Drake Maye has looked shaky in playoff football. His postseason numbers are concerning: 33/56 (58.9%), 674 total yards (224 per game), 4 touchdowns, 4 turnovers, and 19 punts across three games. Against a Seattle defense that’s been battle-tested against legitimate competition, including two playoff wins over the 49ers and Rams, we expect that trend to continue.
BETTING TRENDS
Both teams have crushed against the spread this season. New England is 14-6-0 ATS and 12-8 to the Over. Seattle is 14-5-0 ATS and 11-8 to the Over. The Patriots had covered five straight before failing to cover in the narrow AFC Championship win over Denver. Three of the last four Seahawks games have finished Under.
Rhamondre Stevenson has gone Over his rushing prop in eight consecutive games dating back to Week 13. He accounts for 77% of New England’s running back rushing yards this postseason and handled 90% of the RB opportunities against Denver.
OUR PICK
Truthfully, you’re probably better off with props and in-game wagers here, using your gut as the game moves along. The Patriots are certainly live dogs — they can absolutely win straight up and they’re getting points to boot. But the Seahawks are the better team from top to bottom on both sides of the ball.
This is not a strong call and likely wouldn’t even be a play if this was a regular season game. But we identified the Seahawks as a Super Bowl contender early this season. They started showing up at the top of key metrics we like to use as well as in our model, and they didn’t disappoint. Should be a great game, but we look for Seattle to extend the margin late.
THE PLAY: SEAHAWKS -4.5
As for the total, our numbers say Under. But it’s the Super Bowl. We’ve seen too many championship games turn into high-scoring affairs, so we have no interest there.
Good luck with your plays — we’ll see you next August for the start of the 2026 football season!