A perfect example of why so many sports bettors lose in the long run occurred this past weekend. It’s one of the most common mistakes made by amateur bettors and touts. (Most touts ARE amateurs). Situations like this happen week in and week out during the course of an NFL and College Football season. Aspiring professional handicappers take note.
The situation I am referring to happened on the NC ST vs. Virginia Tech Game this past weekend. Seems the entire world was on NC ST. Wiseguys, touts, and everyone in between.
Technically, they were all correct with their handicapping. NC ST was the right side. NC ST was a solid play this past week. Unfortunately, the majority of those who played NC ST, lost.
The wiseguys took down the money and the squares made another donation. Not unusual and actually par for the course in sports betting. Virginia Tech won the Game 20-16. The line was Va Tech -3.5 or worse all over the place on Saturday when most players made their bets. The Game however, opened up at Va Tech -6 and then -5.5 or -5 in most spots.
The super sharp took +6. The rest of the sharps took the 5.5’s and the 5’s. Guys in the middle somewhere may have gotten the 4.5’s and the 4’s. In total, those with +4 or better probably made up less than 5% of the total number of players who bet on NC ST. The rest, the weekend warriors, those who blindly follow the tv touts or other commercial handicappers, all played NC ST +3.5 and took it on the chin.
This happens because the tout, or the amateur sports bettor makes all the right moves up until the time he places his bet. He correctly handicaps the football Game and pegs NC ST has a solid play. In the touts case, his clients expect his Games to be released at a set time each week. Say 5 pm on a Friday night. So the tout releases his plays on Friday, without any consideration to what the line is now compared to what it was. (By the way, anyone who makes all their selections at the same time every week, will lose over time. That’s fantasy land stuff and just one of the many reasons why most touts lose.)
The do it yourself weekend warrior does this because out of habit, he plays all his Games just before kickoff. Why part with his money sooner than he has to, right?
If your buddy told you that Best Buy had a kick ass computer on sale which he just bought for $1500 bucks, and you walked into the store and just before you paid, they slapped a new price tag on the PC of $2000, would you still buy the computer? I hope not. You’d probably scream and yell and ask to see the manager and if they wouldn’t budge on the price you would probably go elsewhere.
So why in the world are you willing to get screwed on your football bets??
If I owned a book, I would gather up the names of all my customers who bet NC ST +3.5 and offer them 50% bonuses all year round. Because it would only be a matter of time before I had all of their money with those betting habits.
Don’t bang your fist on the table and say damn, I’m just unlucky. I lost that Game by a friggin half point! Bang your fist on the table and say damn! I’m an idiot! I lost that Game by a half point because I played the Game at a bad number!
When you see a pointspread, think of $$$$. If you want to buy a half point on a Game, the book charges you, right? Each half point you buy costs you another 10 cents. If you see a Game at 3.5 that was 6, that’s 50 cents tacked on to the 10 cents or -110 you are already laying. Would you lay -160 on a Game that should be -110 ???
That’s what you are doing when you take +3.5 on a Game that you could have taken +6.
Let this be a lesson for you in line value. It’s more important than handicapping and picking winners. After all, a monkey could flip a coin and hit at least 50% : )
Good Luck this week and go get those good numbers!!!!!