The model does a great job finding live underdogs. Generally, underdogs in the +3 to +9 range that the model predicts to win outright have been very strong over the years. Also, decent sized favorites, from -10 to -15, roughly, that the model predicts to win by a much larger margin, have been very good. For example, a -10 point favorite that the model predicts to win by 28.
That’s not to say you shouldn’t look at others as well. Any time there is a significant difference between the model and the actual line, you should take a closer look at the Game. Make sure to check injuries as well as they aren’t factored into the daily predictions.
Remember, this is a handicapping tool. It can be deadly accurate. Many variables are taken into account by Our model. Lots of work has gone into this model over many years and it is the core of Our approach to college hoops. But realize it is also just a starting point. You need to utilize this tool, with other methods and most importantly you need to stay on top of the latest injuries. Key injuries can affect the outcome of a Game by several points!