Arizona
vs.
Utah
College Basketball
Pick with Analysis
2/28/15
This might be the biggest Pac-12 Game of the regular season. The implications are huge for a number of scenarios including the conference’s regular season winner. Arizona took the first meeting by 18 points. Will things be different in Utah?
The Utes are coming off an unfortunate loss at Oregon this weekend, which dropped them to a Game behind Arizona in the standings. Another loss or two (Pac-12 Tourney included) could see them drop to a 4-seed in March Madness, which is not what they want. A win here for Utah would almost cement them for a 3-seed.
Arizona still has an outside shot at a 1-seed, but getting there means the Wildcats have to win out. That means winning this road Game along with the Conference Tournament. Not impossible, but far from easy. Arizona’s three losses this season have all been on the road by a combined nine points. For them to miss out on a top seed would be unfortunate. The Utes haven’t lost at home yet, which makes this the ultimate heavyweight matchup.
The Wildcats won 69-51 in the first Game, dominating the second half. They were easily the better team, outrebounding the Utes by 21. The only advantage Utah had was shooting as they made eight more three-pointers (9-of-19). The rebounding number obviously has to change if the Utes want a chance here.
Utah’s lack of size is an immediate problem on both ends of the cOurt. Not only could they not rebound, but the Utes also struggled to get easy looks on the offensive end, hence the 51 points. The Wildcats are a big team with only one starter, T.J. McConnell, under 6’7”. That’s kind of why almost half of Utah’s shots last Game came from behind the arc. If the same thing happens, Utah is going to have to be unconscious from three.
And while the Utes are a stout defensive team, there was nothing they could do about Arizona’s 17 offensive boards. McConnell went for 16 points and 6 assists in that Game, with Stanley Johnson and Brandon Ashley combining for 32.
The best way for Utah to come out on top will be on the defensive end. That means limiting Arizona’s offensive rebounds, as well as not letting the Wildcats shoot 49.1% from the field again. If that doesn’t happen, this will be their first loss in Salt LAke City.
At this point, it’s safe to say that everyone knows Arizona is the best team in the Pac-12. People from Utah may not agree, but if they want to change opinions, the Utes need to win this Game. The problem is that these teams play a similar style of basketball, except Arizona is bigger and they just do it better.
The reason Utah has a chance is because this one is at home. The Utes have won every Conference home Game (seven Games, not including Thursday vs. Arizona State) by at least 15 points this year. Let that stat sink in before betting this Game. While Arizona is probably the better team, home-cOurt advantage cannot be dismissed in college basketball, that’s for certain. Both teams have a lot to play for, but what will prevail: the home team, or the better team?
Our Prediction – We rate this Game a pick em and will take any points available with the underdog.