Xavier
vs.
Arizona
Sweet 16
Pick – Analysis
3/26/15
Xavier is the last Big East team remaining and it’s going to take a tall effort to make the Elite 8. The Musketeers have to face an Arizona squad that hasn’t really been challenged yet and is a main reason the Wildcats are favored by -11 at 5Dimes after opening at -10.
The draw couldn’t have been any better for Arizona at this point, as Xavier is another favorable matchup. The Wildcats got somewhat of a test from Ohio State, but they put the Game to bed in the second half en route to a 15-point win. And they didn’t even play that well with Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson struggling from the field (combined 4-of-24). If you make mistakes against Arizona, they will capitalize and that’s exactly what happened in the Round of 32. Despite Ohio State having some success playing zone, Gabe York caught fire and that was the end of it.
This is the first Game that Xavier won’t have an edge in the Tournament down low and that’s going to be an issue. Big man Matt Stainbrook was huge in the first two Games, providing offense on the block as a passer and as a scorer. Going up against the even bigger Kaleb Tarczewski will make that a lot harder to do. Jalen Reynolds had a career Game against Georgia State, but it’s going to take a lot more work to match the 21 points he had in that Game.
The size of Arizona will be an issue for Xavier, especially when you have guys like Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson attacking the basket. James Farr will get the task of Brandon Ashley, which means Remy Abell and Trevon Bluiett have to deal with Johnson and Hollis-Jefferson.
And then Xavier still has to deal with T.J. McConnell and Gabe York at guard after both of those guys lit it up against the Buckeyes.
since the Musketeers won’t have a size advantage and they probably won’t shoot 67.6% (23-of-34) from the field again, how can they keep it close? Stainbrook will have to hold his ground, and while he won’t draw a double team, needs to be a presence with Reynolds and Farr. Myles Davis and Dee Davis have been hitting their shots in the first two Games and both of them will need that to continue because if they don’t, it may be a long day.
Playing the inside-out Game is going to be a bit more difficult for Xavier against a team like Arizona that is not only bigger, but more athletic and has one of the better defenses in the country.
Arizona hasn’t put together an entire Game yet, but with the stakes getting higher, assume that Sean Miller is going to have his team ready for a shot at the Final 4. Xavier will give Arizona a decent test, due to the similar sizes of both teams, but the skill of the Wildcats is at a higher level than what the Musketeers can deal with. There’s a reason Xavier lost three times to Villanova this year. They have a physical, solid squad, but it’s not good enough to beat the top teams in the country.