Woffard
vs.
Arkansas
March Madness
Pick – Analysis
3/19/15
It kind of feels like every year the committee purposely places certain teams as the 5-seed, just so the inevitable 12 over 5 upset can happen. That’s definitely the case this year, especially with this Arkansas squad that isn’t all that trustworthy, against a sneaky, experienced Wofford team.
Most of Arkansas’ Game is based on its offense. If the offense isn’t hitting, there’s no telling what will happen because their defense isn’t great. But they were the second-best team in the SEC for a reason, mainly because they were more consistent than everyone other than Kentucky. Most of their losses came away from home, including to Clemson, Tennessee and Florida. All three of those teams have worse RPIs than Wofford.
The Terriers dominated the Southern Conference and were kind of the opposite from Arkansas, a better defensive team. They tested themselves in non-Conference play with Games at West Virginia, Duke and Stanford, and even got a win at NC State in mid-December.
This may be a clash of styles, but there’s one big advantage for the Razorbacks in this Game: Bobby Portis. Wofford plays only man-to-man defense, but they aren’t a big team at all. There’s a reason Jahlil Okafor went 11-of-13 for 24 points in 32 minutes against them earlier this season. Portis is the SEC Player of the Year as a sophomore and at 6’11” should see a ton of the ball in this Game. He averages 17.5 points and 8.6 rebounds per Game and has really dominated at times this season.
Wofford is a defensive team, but stopping one of the best scoring teams in the nation — that also happens to be bigger than you — doesn’t seem likely. That’s where their shooters come in. Leading scorer and senior Karl Cochran (14.6 PPG) shoots a ton (256 attempted 3s this year) and he’ll need to be hitting some. Spencer Collins and Lee Skinner have probably been the team’s better scorers as of late, but the size of Arkansas could change that. Collins along with role players like Eric Garcia will be called upon to make some treys.
The other Razorback to worry about is Michael Qualls, the team’s second-best player. He and Portis may be all Arkansas needs to win this Game. And they still have plenty of athletes in Rashad Madden and Alandise Harris, which is why they like to run… and score.
Wofford will be a popular upset pick in this spot, but if Bobby Portis comes to play, it’s going to be extremely tough for the Terries to get a win here. If they can hit some shots, they should be able to keep it close, just because Arkansas is not great on the defensive end, giving up 70.1 points per Game, 270th in the country. But against a smaller team, it’s likely the Razorbacks will feed Portis as much as possible and that could end up being enough in the end.