Florida State
vs.
Virginia
College Basketball
Pick – Analysis
2/22/15
Thanks to a friendly Schedule, Virginia has not taken a step back since Justin Anderson got hurt. The Cavaliers look primed for a No. 1 seed having won five straight Games entering this matchup against a struggling Florida State squad.
Virginia will not have to face a team with a winning ACC record until their final two Games at Syracuse and Louisville. since Anderson got hurt against Louisville two weeks ago, the Cavs have been in some close Games, yet prevailed. In their most recent win, they ended up covering in a 12-point win against Pittsburgh, a Game in which most of the public backed Pitt due to Virginia’s recent close calls. What will be the case for this Game?
Florida State doesn’t have a good record and needs a lot of help if it even wants to make it into the NIT this season. But, the Seminoles are not an easy out by any means. They’ve taken teams like Duke and North Carolina down to the wire in recent Games and have actually won their last two road Games (Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech).
Charlottesville has become an extremely tough place to play over the last couple years. However, will they be as psyched against this unsuspecting Florida State team that not many see as a threat? This is another Game that could result in a close, non-cover win for Virginia.
The immediate problem when playing Virginia is their dominant defense, which currently leads the nation allowing less than 51 points per Game. The Seminoles have a mediocre offense with only one guy (Devon Bookert) that’s any decent from behind the arc. A positive for this FSU squad is that they don’t rely on one guy to get the job done. Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Montay Brandon and Bookert all average double-digits, while they have a number of guys that fill in as solid role players. But will they be efficient enough?
Virginia double-teams everyone on the block, and their in-the-face defense causes all kinds of problems for players not used to it. While the Cavaliers aren’t great on the offensive end, they are fairly efficient, despite not scoring a lot of points. Their pace-of-play is the main thing that holds them back from scoring more.
Without their best shooter, Virginia still lacks a real threat from long range, but Malcolm Brogdon and London Perrantes have seemingly started shooting better since Anderson’s injury. The consistency of those two along with the strength down low in Darion Atkins, Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey is all Virginia has needed to their current 24-1 record.
Even though these teams have two very different records, Virginia still is only 14-9 ATS, which is a good rate, but nothing over the top. Florida State is a feisty team that has been on somewhat of a covering streak as of late, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them give enough here to come away with another cover, albeit in a losing effort.
Our Prediction – Virginia by 20