Georgia
vs.
Michigan State
March Madness
Pick With Analysis
3/20/15
A lot of people felt like Michigan State deserved a better seeding (Tom Izzo included), especially after taking Wisconsin down to the wire in the Big Ten Tournament title Game, but instead the Spartans got a 7-spot and will have to face a Georgia squad that has given Kentucky some close Games this season.
MSU doesn’t really have a great non-Conference win on the year, but lost a number of close calls to the likes of Duke, Kansas and Notre Dame. A largely inconsistent team at times, the Spartans finished the year 8-3 ATS on the road. This was a team that probably played better basketball away from home throughout the Conference season and that showed in the Big Ten Tournament.
But before even touching this Game, get the status of Georgia’s Kenny Gaines because he is questionable to play. It also has to be noted that the Bulldogs are 8-3-1 ATS on the road this season themselves. Their best non-Conference wins include Colorado and Kansas State, but they also lost to Georgia Tech and Minnesota (although MSU lost to the Gophers as well). Georgia battled Kentucky both Games, but they also lost to South Carolina twice in the regular season. At their best, they won Games at Texas A&M and Ole Miss, which shows how good they can be.
Kenny Gaines is dealing with a sprained foot, and while he said he’s going to play, it’s doubtful he’ll be 100%. That’s pretty important because he’s Georgia’s second-best scorer (11.6 PPG), one of their better shooters and probably their best perimeter defender. The Bulldogs will probably want to use their bigs as much as possible as the 6’8″ Marcus Thornton (12.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG) is one of their best players. The problem with that is that MSU will likely use Branden Dawson (12 PPG, 9.1 RPG) on him, one of the Big Ten’s best defenders. This is probably a welcome site for Dawson after having to deal with Frank Kaminsky in his last Game.
If Thornton has trouble scoring, Georgia could have an issue. Nemanja Djurisic could be a factor against Gavin SChilling and Matt Costello because he stretches the floor as a big man. Charles Mann will likely match up with Denzel Valentine and that should be a fun matchup. Both are about the same size and play the same kind of role for their teams.
MSU is great on the offensive glass and in transition, but Georgia is solid at getting back on defense (2nd fewest transition points allowed per Game in SEC) and is also a good rebounding team.
The difference will be Michigan State’s efficiency on offense. The Spartans assist the ball a ton, which leads to a solid shooting percentage and lots of open threes. Valentine and Bryn Forbes both shot above 40% from range and Travis Trice gets his fair share.
With Gaines not being 100%, J.J. Frazier will need to hit some shots for Georgia to have a chance. If the Spartans continue their play as of late, they should get the win, but if the Bulldogs can get decent minutes and play out of Gaines, this could end up being a close one.