Harvard
vs.
North Carolina
March Madness
Pick – Analysis
3/19/15
Harvard was a popular upset pick in last year’s Tournament as a 12-seed, and they took down Cincinnati, but this matchup will be a little tougher. It doesn’t help that North Carolina has picked up its play in recent weeks and a lot of people are considering them for a spot in the Elite 8 ahead of Wisconsin.
The Crimson are not as good as the one we saw last year, so keep that in your mind. They don’t have as good of scorers or shooters and that will ultimately hurt them in this Game. Harvard was destroyed by Virginia 76-27 early in the year, and their best non-Conference wins are against Houston and UMass. Beating up on the Ivy League doesn’t mean a whole lot on the national scale.
North Carolina has a big team and they can Scorewith most in the country. Their size will be the biggest issue for Harvard. The Tar Heels were inconsistent for much of the season, but this is still a team that made it to the ACC title Game, beating the likes of Louisville and Virginia along the way.
Harvard still has the same trio of players in Wesley Saunders, Siyani Chambers and Steve Moundou-Missi, but outside of that, they lack scorers. Corbin Miller is a solid shooter (35.6% from three), but isn’t LAurent Rivard from previous Harvard teams. Moundou-Missi is going to have loads of problems going against the likes of Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks. Those two are complete beasts and the last time the Crimson saw anywhere near this type of size (Virginia), their starters ended up shooting a dreadful 1-of-32 from the field.
North Carolina doesn’t have the same kind of defense as Virginia, but Harvard was dominated on the boards in that Game and there’s no reason to think UNC can’t do the same to them. For Harvard to keep this Game within single-digits, Chambers will need to get into some kind of rhythm, and Corbin Miller needs to shoot better than he has (3-of-22 from 3 in last three Games). Wesley Saunders (16.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 4.2 APG) is Harvard’s playmaker, but he’ll likely draw the matchup of J.P. Tokoto, one of the best defenders in the ACC.
If the Tar Heels continue the way they’ve been playing, there should be no problems with this Game. A lot of people will consider Harvard because of what they did last year, but that’s a bad strategy to take. UNC isn’t a good shooting team, but they should be able to attack the paint all Game against Moundou-Missi and Kenyatta Smith, just due to the shear size advantage.
If the Crimson even want to stay competitive in this Game, they’ll need to play one of the better Games of the season, which means Saunders, Chambers and Miller will need to all hit their shots, while holding their ground on the defensive end. The Tar Heels are a smart play here.