Louisville
vs.
Pittsburgh
College Basketball
Pick
1/25/15
Louisville is getting a full week to think about their recent home loss to Duke. They travel to Pittsburgh, who could put up a bigger fight than their 13-6 record suggests.
The Cardinals don’t have many great wins on the season and their struggles showed up against the Blue Devils. Four of their next five Games are on the road, with that lone home Game being against UNC. Louisville has only played three true road Games all year and none of them have been easy, beating both Wake Forest and Western Kentucky by only nine points, while also losing to the Tar Heels by one.
If the Panthers want to make the big Tournament, they know they’ll need one or two big wins before the ACC Tournament begins. In non-Conference play, they lost to Hawaii and needed overtime to beat Oakland, not great results. After two straight home Conference wins, they were completely outmatched by Duke on Monday night.
The biggest matchup, which could easily decide this Game, is Montrezl Harrell against Pittsburgh. Harrell hasn’t been all that great in the last Four Games, never topping 11 points. In hostile road Games, he’s going to be Louisville’s main factor to take away the crowd noise. Pitt has decent size and athleticism, which could give Harrell fits again.
The problem with Pittsburgh is that their offense struggles with consistency and they only Score67 points per Game. Playing against the pressure of Louisville’s guards in Terry Rozier and Chris Jones, as well as Harrell and Mangok Mathiang in the paint, will make points hard to come by.
As usual, the Panthers have nice balance, but this will be the type of Game that someone has to step up and become a go-to scoring option. Michael Young and Cameron Wright have had some nice Games on the year, but third-leading scorer James Robinson is shooting just 8-of-37 in his last five Games. He’s a guy Pittsburgh will need to play well to have a chance at an upset.
Pittsburgh’s defense could also give Louisville some fits, especially if they take the same zone approach on defense as Duke did. The Cardinals struggle to shoot the ball, and sport a miserable 29.4% from long range. One of Rozier, Jones or Wayne Blackshear will need to have a good, efficient Game on the offensive end. None of those guys shot better than a 32% clip against the Blue Devils with Jones and Blackshear both going 2-of-10 from the field. Playing zone against the Cardinals should be able to keep any opponent within striking distance, considering how poor of a shooting team they are.
This Game could turn into a real test for Louisville, with the Game coming down to the final minutes. With Pitt’s experience in the backcOurt, that should only help against the Cardinals defense. Will anyone be able to stop Harrell, though?
Our Prediction – Louisville by 9