Northern Iowa
vs.
Wichita State
College Basketball
Pick – Analysis
2/28/15
There’s no easy way around it, both of these teams need this Game… and probably the MVC Tournament title. They may be ranked highly in the AP Polls, but the March Madness committee doesn’t really care about that.
It can’t be forgotten that SMU, ranked No. 25 in the polls last year, missed out on the Tournament. That’s what happens when you have a weak Schedule and didn’t really beat anyone relevant.
As it stands, Northern Iowa’s best win of the season was against Wichita State in their first meeting (70-54) and outside of that was Iowa. Wichita State’s best win right now is Tulsa, which means the Shockers probably need this Game a little more. If one of these teams loses here and in the MVC Tourney, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them to drop to a 7-seed.
It’s hard to look at recent results for these teams because the Missouri Valley is not a strong conference. What matters is which team will be able to play their Game? In the first Game, that was UNI by far, shooting 60% from the field on only 40 field goal attempts. WSU got off more shots, but went 35.4% from the field and only 5-of-24 from long range. The defense of the Panthers was too much for the Shockers to handle.
The obvious factor here is the location of the Game with Wichita State being the home team. Will that be enough to overcome Northern Iowa’s tough defense? The Shockers need help outside of Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet. Third-leading scorer Darius Carter got into foul trouble guarding Seth Tuttle in the first Game and only played 17 minutes. Combine that with a 7-of-22 shooting day from Baker and VanVleet and it’s easy to see how Wichita State lost by 16. Baker and VanVleet can be the main focus for opposing defenses and that hurts against better teams.
Tekele Cotton is the only other player that has shown he can do something on the offensive end for the Shockers and he only took five shots in the first Game.
Northern Iowa’s dominant defense, efficient offense and slow-it-down mentality is a perfect fit for a deep squad that has eight guys averaging 16.5 minutes per Game and only one averaging more than 26. Seth Tuttle is that one guy and he dominated in the first Game with 29 points and 7 rebounds, including 10-of-13 from the foul line. Tuttle presents a tough matchup for a size-deficient team because not only is he a stretch player, but he can also post up most players in the MVC. Darius Carter and Shaquille Morris combined for 8 fouls in 30 minutes of play. Tuttle played 30 minutes. There’s no coincidence there.
OUtside of Tuttle, Northern Iowa has a solid core of guys that can all shoot from distance and all play their roles exceptionally.
To beat the Panthers, opposing teams need a big guy that can deal with Tuttle, and an offense that spreads the ball around and doesn’t rely on two main guys to do their work. In the regular season finale, Northern Iowa is probably the better team, but beating the Shockers in Wichita has been close to impossible over the last couple years.
Our Prediction – Wichita State by 7