Notre Dame
vs.
Duke
College Basketball
Prediction with Analysis
2/7/15
The rematch between these teams is already here after Notre Dame escaped a week ago in South Bend. Unfortunately for the Fighting Irish, they lost their next Game at Pittsburgh while Duke got a big win at previously undefeated Virginia. Not many will be picking the Irish to win in Durham.
Notre Dame had a shot to be in first place by themselves, but that loss threw them to the masses and they now have two ACC losses with road Games at Duke and Louisville remaining. The Irish haven’t had an easy win on the road yet. They won close Games at UNC, Georgia Tech and NC State, and fell most recently at Pittsburgh. While they do have the win at North Carolina, it’d be a big surprise if they could do the same thing at Duke.
The Blue Devils already have two road wins at Top 10 teams, which is almost unheard of at this point in the year, and they could easily have three if they didn’t collapse at Notre Dame. Ignoring their two-Game losing streak, which looks like an extreme anomaly compared to the rest of the season, Duke hasn’t really been challenged at home yet.
After going down 10 with 10 minutes to go in the first meeting, Notre Dame went on a 12-0 run, which eventually led to a 77-73 win. If they expect to win the same way on the road, they’ll likely come up short. The Irish shot 51.8% from the field (season average), were out-rebounded and didn’t have an answer for Jahlil Okafor (22 points, 17 rebounds). However, if Jerian Grant can put up his same numbers (23 points, 6 boards, 12 assists) they will be in the Game.
The fact that both of these teams like to run and scoreshould mean that this matchup will be close, no matter the location. Duke doesn’t have the greatest defense and that showed in the first meeting. It wouldn’t be outlandish to say that Notre Dame could shoot over 50% from the field again.
The main difference between these Games could be the play of freshman Justise Winslow. He’s been an incredibly inconsistent player this season and that was seen last week when he had two rebounds against a shorter Notre Dame team, but led Duke with 11 rebounds at Virginia. If Winslow can get involved into the Game a little more, that would help against ND’s Pat Connaughton, who had 12 boards in the first meeting.
While Duke should get big Games from their usual studs in Okafor, Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook, Notre Dame has a bigger question. Jerian Grant could have another big Game, but who is going to step up? Zach Auguste played only 22 minutes in the first meeting because he couldn’t defend Okafor. To sweep the Blue Devils, the Irish will need better defense from Auguste, but also something more from Demetrius Jackson or Steve Vasturia on the offensive end.
Notre Dame has lost only three Games this year by a combined 11 points.
Our Prediction – Duke by 14