UCLA Gonzaga

176
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UCLA

vs.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Pick – Analysis

3/27/15

From lucky to get into the Tournament, to back-to-back Sweet 16s, UCLA continues to confuse people. They’ll get a hungry Gonzaga team looking to prove its seeding. The last time these two played was in 2006, also in the Sweet 16, in the infamous Adam Morrison breakdown. The Bulldogs are a healthy -8.5 point favorite (as seen at 5Dimes) for this Game in Houston.

Gonzaga has all the tools to make the Final 4 this year, even having a chance against a team like Duke. They’ve run through their two opponents, North Dakota State and Iowa. UCLA has had kind of a lucky route after getting a favorable goal-tending call against SMU and then facing UAB in the Round of 32.

UAB had no answer for UCLA’s size last Game and Tony Parker ended up with 28 points and 12 rebounds. It’s almost a guarantee that he won’t be getting those numbers in this Game. Gonzaga has a solid all-around team, which is why they only have two losses on the year.

Przemek Karnowski is actually bigger than Parker, so that advantage is gone for UCLA, and Kevon Looney will also have to deal with the bigger and more experienced Kyle Wiltjer. While the Bruins don’t have much of a bench, the Bulldogs will bring another skilled big man off the bench in Domantas Sabonis.

It’s going to be up to the backcOurt if UCLA wants a shot in this Game. Bryce Alford has been the main threat in the Tournament with 49 points in two Games, led by 12-of-16 from behind the arc. If he’s hitting his shot again, the Bruins will have a chance. Norman Powell is actually the team’s leading scorer, but hasn’t really needed to do as much so far because Alford has been on fire. He and Isaac Hamilton will need to be factors in this Game, however.

Because of Gonzaga’s size, Parker and Looney aren’t going to have free-range on the offensive glass like they did last Game (10 combined offensive boards). WIltjer has been fantastic for the Bulldogs all season long and has 47 points in his first two Games, including six made three-pointers. If Looney can limit those open looks on the outside with his length, that would help.

UCLA is not a deep team and that could become a problem for them. In Gonzaga’s last Game, Iowa’s two big men fouled out. If the Bruins get into foul trouble, they’ll have to go to the bench for guys like Thomas Welsh, who hasn’t really played much this season.

Gonzaga’s backcOurt is filtered with seniors in Kevin Pangos, Gary Bell Jr. and Byron Wesley. Those three have played great all season long as a trio and they still have Kyle Dranginis off the bench. Pangos and Bell are their best shooters, and Pangos is a guy you absolutely cannot leave open as he hits 45% of his three-pointers.

UCLA has not been a good defensive team all season, but they have given a fight in the two times they faced Arizona this season, losing 57-47 on the road and 70-64 in the Pac-12 Tournament. Gonzaga is similar to that Arizona team in size and the two went to overtime earlier in the year. If UCLA brings its A-Game, this should be a tighter battle than expected, especially if Alford and Powell get going.

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