Wisconsin
vs.
North Carolina
Sweet 16
Pick – Analysis
3/26/15
This is the matchup everyone wanted and for good reason. These two teams haven’t really played opponents with a lot of size in the Tourney yet, but that’s what they’ll be getting in this matchup. Wisconsin opened at -5 over North Carolina at 5Dimes and that’s where the line sits.
The last time the Badgers played anywhere close to this kind of size was in the in the Big Ten Tournament against Purdue. They actually trailed in the half of that Game before winning by 20. Teams that can match Frank Kaminsky and Nigel Hayes are the ones that have given Wisconsin trouble throughout the year. Justin Jackson and Sam Dekker will be an equally intriguing matchup at the 3-spot.
A similar comparison of Wisconsin for North Carolina would be Virginia. The Badgers have size, play tough defense, but the only difference is that they can shoot. That could be a problem for the Tar Heels.
The main advantage for Wisconsin against almost everyone is that they have two big guys that can step back and shoot the three, but also work down low in the post. Kaminsky is the main man, but Hayes has really picked it up this season and is vital to the Badgers’ chances at advancing. UNC will have the size, but will their bigs be used to defending guys like Kaminsky and Hayes beyond the three-point line?
It doesn’t look like Kennedy Meeks will be active in this Game after spraining his knee on Saturday and that’s not going to help UNC at all. Kaminsky’s athleticism and ability to stretch the floor is troublesome for anyone to defend and the less experienced Isaiah Hicks will probably start out on him. Brice Johnson will get Hayes and that matchup should be a little more even. While this Game will surely be a great matchup down low, the most important piece to North Carolina is Marcus Paige. When he can find open looks and hit his shots, that’s when the Tar Heels are at their best. He’ll probably be marked by Wisconsin’s best defender, Josh Gasser.
As for Wisconsin’s backcOurt, in addition to stretch big men, all of their guards can shoot as well in addition to Duje Dukan off the bench. Traevon Jackson hasn’t returned yet, but he may be a factor soon for Wisconsin.
A lot of these matchups are even skill wise, but the difference may be in terms of experience and smarts. Wisconsin is one of the best defensive teams in the nation that rarely fouls or turns the ball over. The same can’t be said about North Carolina, who often have turnover issues and get criticized for not playing hard a lot of the time.
If the Tar Heels want to win, they’ll need to dominate the boards and show their muscle down low, which is do-able in this Game, although harder without Meeks. They can’t be lackadaisical on defense though, leaving any of the Badgers open on the perimeter because they will hit those shots. UNC has the tools, but using them the right way is another story, especially against a fundamentally sound team such as Wisconsin.