CBB Pick 2/20/24: Baylor Bears Seek Road Upset Against BYU Cougars

baylor at byu cbb pick ats with score prediction
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Baylor Bears Seek Road Upset Against BYU Cougars

The #11 Baylor Bears (19-6) venture into a hostile environment as they take on the #25 BYU Cougars (18-7) at the Marriott Center in Provo, Utah on February 20th. This rematch promises intensity as BYU seeks revenge for an earlier Baylor win and both teams fight for position in their respective conferences.

Road Test for Baylor

Baylor’s road record hasn’t been exceptional (3-3 SU), but they boast a 5-1 ATS away record. BYU, with a stellar 13-2 SU home mark and 10-5 ATS record, will look to use their raucous crowd to their advantage.

Conference Implications

Baylor currently sits third in the Big 12 with an 8-4 record and eyes a crucial victory to boost their tournament seeding. BYU, at 6-6 in conference play, aims to strengthen their tournament resume and fight for a higher standing in a loaded Big 12.

Betting Lines and Model Predictions

BetOnline has BYU favored by -2.5, suggesting a close contest. However, our prediction model shows a stark contrast:

  • Full Season Data: Favors a BYU win, 79-77
  • Recent Form (Last 7 Games): Baylor is predicted to win, 88-81

Injury Watch: Langston Love

The potential absence of Baylor guard, Langston Love (questionable, leg), adds uncertainty and could impact the Bears’ backcourt production.

3-Point Showdown

Baylor leads the nation in 3-point shooting percentage, suggesting a potential edge if they can find their rhythm from beyond the arc. BYU will need to find ways to limit Baylor’s perimeter efficiency.

The Earlier Matchup

Baylor took the first game against BYU back on January 9th, winning 81-72 at home. Will that result have a psychological impact on this rematch?

The Verdict

Our model, when using full season data is right at the current line. But what happened in November really shouldn’t play into predicting an outcome in late February. We sound like a broken record but current form is everything in college hoops. We’ll go with our model prediction using only the last 7 games which has Baylor winning straight up by 7. We’ll also go over the total of 156.

Baylor +2.5

Baylor/BYU OVER 156

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