In a pivotal Mountain West Conference showdown with high stakes, the #22 Colorado State Rams embark on a road trip to Albuquerque, New Mexico, to face the New Mexico Lobos on Wednesday, February 21st, 2024. With both teams boasting identical 20-6 records and tied for 4th in the MWC, this game is not just a revenge match but a fight for conference positioning in a season where five conference teams have reached the 20-win mark.
Clash of Contrasting Home and Away Records
The Lobos hold a distinct advantage with an impressive 11-2 home record, contrasting with the Rams’ 3-5 record on the road. New Mexico aims to avoid back-to-back losses after falling to San Diego State, while Colorado State is riding high with five wins in their last six.
History and Score Predictions
This game carries history and revenge potential – Colorado State defeated New Mexico earlier this season, 76-68, and the Lobos will be hungry to even the score in front of their home crowd. Both teams are well-respected as KenPom ranks them within the top 30, despite New Mexico slipping out of the AP Top 25. Our predictive model is consistent, projecting a New Mexico win, 79-75 (full season data) and 76-72 (last 7 games data). However, Colorado State has won six of the last seven matchups in this series, and they’ll be eager to continue their dominance.
Battle for Conference Supremacy
The New Mexico – Colorado State clash earned top billing on KenPom’s Thrill Score ranking, emphasizing the intensity and importance of this contest. Adding to the excitement, Both teams boast potent offenses that rank in the top 90 nationally for scoring. Additionally, Colorado State’s 5th-ranked field goal and free throw percentage will clash with New Mexico’s strong presence on the boards, ranked 66th for rebounds. This matchup paints a picture of a fast-paced, high-scoring contest.
Player Spotlight
Colorado State’s Isaiah Stevens will look to continue his offensive brilliance, averaging 16.2 points per game. On the other side, New Mexico’s dynamic duo of Jaelen House (15.9 ppg) and Donovan Dent (15.4 ppg) will look to ignite the Lobo attack.
Our Pick
In their previous meeting Colorado State was a -4 point favorite with a total of 158 at wagerweb sportsbook. This times we expect New Mexico to be favored at home by close to the same margin (no lines at this writing).
While there’s no edge according to our model, we like New Mexico here because of the revenge factor. Not only would the win get them some revenge but it would also likely place New Mexico back into the top 25.
New Mexico -5 (that’s the opener, we’d expect this line to come down so hold off for a better number!)