Nevada vs. Dayton Pick ATS – 3/21

dayton vs. nevada pick ats
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March Madness Shootout: Dayton vs. Nevada

Brace yourself for a potential offensive explosion in this first-round matchup between the Dayton Flyers (7-seed) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (10-seed). Both teams boast lethal outside shooting and high-scoring averages, making this clash a 3-point lover’s dream.

Dayton: Seeking Redemption After Upset

  • Late-Season Skid: The Flyers stumbled into the tournament, losing their conference title bid and going 3-3 in their final stretch.
  • Sharpshooters: Their 3-point accuracy (40.1%, 3rd nationwide) could be the key to unlocking their offense.
  • Holmes Factor: Daron Holmes leads the way, but they’ll need consistent contributions from Santos, Cheeks, and Brea.

Nevada: Hot Streak Meets Conference Letdown

  • Impressive Surge: The Wolf Pack won 10 of their last 11 but suffered a conference tournament upset. Can they regain that momentum?
  • Balanced Attack: Blackshear, Davidson, Lucas, and Coleman form a balanced scoring threat.
  • Similar Profile: Nevada’s high field goal percentage (47.5%, 41st in the nation) mirrors Dayton’s offensive strength.

X-Factors and Matchup Intrigue

  • Rebounding Edge?: Can Nevada leverage a slight rebounding advantage to create second-chance points?
  • Defensive Intensity: Which team can apply enough defensive pressure to disrupt the opposition’s smooth shooting rhythm?
  • Bench Production: A surprise performance from either team’s reserves could swing the momentum.

Betting Insights

  • Model Says…. Our model predicts a Nevada win, 82-72.
  • Over/Under Intrigue: Our model’s 154-point prediction hints at a potentially high-scoring affair, making the 136.5 over/under look very tempting.
  • Shooter’s Delight: If both teams find their shooting groove, this could easily surpass the projected total.


We’re going to ride our model in this one for both the side and total. The stronger of the two plays would have to be the total. These teams can shoot lights out and if those 3’s start falling lookout.

The side is a bit trickier. We’ll make a small play on Nevada due to their play down the stretch. But obviously either of these teams can get hot.

OVER 136.5 (Top Play)

Nevada -1 (small play)

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