Tulane at South Florida CBB Pick – No Room for Error – 3/5/24

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Tulane at South Florida Pick ATS
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South Florida’s NCAA Tournament Fate Hangs in the Balance Against Tulane

The stakes couldn’t be higher for the South Florida Bulls as they host the Tulane Green Wave on Tuesday, March 5th. Despite a stellar 22-5 record and a 14-game winning streak, the Bulls teeter on the edge of the NCAA Tournament bubble. This seemingly routine matchup against Tulane holds more significance than meets the eye.

The Bulls’ surprising tournament uncertainty stems from their weak schedule strength within the AAC. Two damaging Quadrant 4 losses to Central Michigan and Maine, coupled with a NET ranking of 79, paint an unfavorable picture. Their single Quadrant 1 win over Memphis is a lifeline, but experts like Joe Lunardi place them as a precarious 11-seed, with others eliminating them entirely.

Betonline opened South Florida as a -7 point favorite with a total of 156.

No Room for Error

Time is running out. Losing even one of their final two games, or stumbling early in the AAC tournament, could seal their fate. Conversely, winning out and capturing the conference title would catapult them into the dance as one of the nation’s hottest teams, ready to defy their underdog status.

Tuesday’s matchup against Tulane should, on paper, be a comfortable win. Tulane languishes near the bottom of the AAC with a 4-12 conference record and an unimpressive 2-7 road record. Models predict a 7-10 point margin of victory for the Bulls, with a projected 82-71 scoreline based on recent performance.

Key Points to Watch:

  • Can USF maintain their focus? The Bulls can’t afford a slip-up against a much weaker opponent. Every remaining game is a must-win.
  • Tulane’s spoiler potential: Can the Green Wave capitalize on USF’s pressure and pull off a major upset?
  • USF’s path to the dance: Do they need to win out? What’s the minimum requirement to feel safe?

This game is less about the matchup and more about USF’s battle for an NCAA Tournament berth. Can they handle the mounting pressure and solidify their spot, or will the weight of their uncertain future lead to a stumble against Tulane?

Our Pick – South Florida -7

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