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COLLEGE FOOTBALL MARQUEE MATCUPS WEEK 3
9/20/08
This week we only found two College Games to put out as Key Releases. Obviously though, we have to handicap the entire board to get to those selections. So we’ll use this spot to take a look at some of the bigger matchups this week and offer Our 2 cents on them while perhaps shedding some light on why they weren’t used as Key Releases.
LSU AT Auburn – Very intriguing Game. Perhaps the Game of the week for many. LSU is a great program. Good every year. Defending National Champs. Winners of 10+ Games in a season 5 times this decade alone. It’s hard to poke holes in all those wins. This year they have opened with a soft Schedule. App State and North Texas and a Game against Troy that was postponed. They disposed of those two as expected scoring 41 points in each Game and now face an Auburn defense that so far, is fantastic. But neither of these teams has faced anyone yet. Heck, you could say the LSU defense is great based on their two Games. Where I’d be very coNCerned if I were backing Auburn, is with their offense. It was suggested before the year even started that Auburn would struggle implementing this new offense. A change like this takes time and so far that has proved to be the case. You know LSU is going to be good on both sides of the ball. If they get out in front of Auburn early, it could be check-mate because this Auburn offense hasn’t shown it can get it done yet and it’s for that reason we are steering clear of this one. The under is also on a lot of peoples radar. Opinion – LSU-2.5
Alabama at Arkansas – We’re not in the habit of laying more than a few points which is the only reason we are not going to back Alabama this week. We think Alabama could blow Arkansas off the field. It’s a team on the rise with Alabama against a team that should be a mess this year in Arkansas. So far this year, Arkansas squeaked by LA Monroe and Western Illinois. Alabama has only give up one touchdown this year and kicked off the year with a 34-10 win over a Clemson team many had pegged for greatness. Arkansas has a new coach, a new offense, and lost key elements of their success from a year ago in Mcfadden and Jones, both now in the NFL. Yeah, there’s a lot of history here and yeah, Alabama has some pointspread trends working against them but at the end of the day it’s all about the talent on the field. Bama has it. Arkansas doesn’t. Strong opinion on Alabama -9.5
Wake Forest at Florida State – Bobby Bowden still looking for revenge for that 30-0 shutout a couple of years ago at the hands of Wake Forest. This could be the year. Last year Wake had to come from behind to eke out a 3 point win beating FSU in back to back Games for the first time ever. Florida State still has players serving suspensions dating back to last year. Either way, the talent GAp has been closed between these two and with both teams returning many starters from a year ago, no reason to think this one won’t be close especially with FSU not being at full strength. But even though it was against two cupcakes, FSU won it’s first two Games by a combined score of 115-7! Opinion – Wake Forest +4
Notre Dame at Michigan State – Certainly not sold on the Irish after last weeks win over Michigan. Michigan still struggling and the Game was played in iNCredibly bad conditions with most of Notre Dames points handed to them via turnovers. Michigan State went out west and went toe to toe with Cal in week one. Yeah, Cal stumbled last week but they figure to be much better than the Irish. We think Michigan State takes this one rather easily but as in the Alabama Game, we just aren’t interested in laying 9 points.
Miami Fla at Texas AM – Miami has to feel good about hanging around in the Florida Game. They weren’t embarrassed. Miami beat Texas AM last year 34-17 and now travels west to play them on the road. Sometimes Playing, and losing to a national powerhouse like Florida can actually pay dividends the next time you take the field. Things you tried to do, in this case against Florida, but couldn’t, suddenly seem to work much better against a team with half the talent of Florida, like Texas AM. On the flip side, Texas AM hasn’t played anyone yet. With that alone, in an otherwise even Game, we give the slight edge to the Hurricanes. As an opinion, we’ll lay the number. Miami -3
Florida at Tennessee – The only reason we’re not playing this one is because we have been burned by this Game a number of times over the years. In most of those Games, we were on Tennessee and had we elected to play this one, would probably have played Tennessee this week as well. We’re a sucker for big rivalry Games and getting more than a touchdown at home . Add in the revenge angle and we’re usual backing up the brinks truck. But this year we’ll watch this one from the sidelines and only offer up an opinion. Tennessee +7.5
Georgia at Arizona State – Have to think Arizona State was caught looking ahead last week when they lost to UNLV. That loss provides the value here though. If ASU looked impressive last week we’d be seeing a much different line here. If in fact they were caught looking ahead and their performances the first two Games are more indicative of what we’re likely to see the rest of the way with ASU, then we’d lean towards taking Arizona State and the touchdown here. But it’s a weak lean. Two very different styles of football and ASU is 0-3 vs. the SEC. Arizona State +7
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