Key Release Wyoming +3.5 over Air Force – (Ok at +3) – Yes, Wyoming is near the bottom of the pack when it comes to defending the run. Yes, Air Force is the #3 rushing team in the nation. But let’s keep things in perspective. 1-4 Army is the #2 rushing team in the nation. That doesn’t make them any good. It simply means that’s all they can do offensively. These option teams are always going to be at the top of the rushing charts, but running the ball alone won’t win Games for them.
Also keep in mind who these teams have played. There might be a reason that currently, Wyoming isn’t so good against the run. How about having had to play Texas for example? In fact, the basis of this play is who these teams have played.
Wyoming’s opponents this year have a record of 20-8. Air Force’s opponents have a straight up record of 7-20. You can understand why Wyoming is 1-4. But Air Force is just 2-3 and their opponents have been 1-4 Idaho State, 2-3 Michigan, 1-5 UNLV, 1-5 Colorado State and 2-3 Navy. Not one team with a winning record. Three 1 win teams and two 2 win teams. Other than Michigan, those are some bad teams folks and Air Force lost straight up to UNLV and Navy.
Here’s a look at Wyoming’s opponents. 4-1 Texas, 5-1 Toledo, 5-0 Cal Poly, 1-5 Idaho and 5-1 Nevada. Wyoming was outclassed by Texas, but lost by just 7 in OT to Nevada, lost by 2 to Cal Poly and lost to Toledo by 3. That’s three 5 win teams, a 4 win team and the cupcake, Idaho State with 1 win.
We show Wyoming as having played a Schedule that has been about 9 points more difficult than Air Force, and yet both teams sport identical yards per point numbers on offense and nearly identical numbers on defense. Wyoming won last year by a 25-17 Scoreand brings back more players from that Game than Air Force.
This isn’t the type of Game we’d typically get involved with. We tend to favor “good” teams getting points. Not so sure Wyoming is “good” but they look better than Air Force. Our Score Prediction model also predicts a straight up Wyoming win by 13 points. Perhaps the wrong team is favored here? 3* Key Release Wyoming +3.5