San Diego State
vs.
Ohio State
College Football
Prediction
9/7/13
Ohio State didn’t exactly blow out Buffalo in their first Game, giving up 20 points to a MAC school, but it looked a lot better than what San Diego State did. In the least talked about upset of the first week, FCS school Eastern Illinois completely dismantled the Aztecs at Qualcomm Stadium, 40-19. This week, Ohio State is a 4 touchdown favorite at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.
The result last week did not make a whole lot of sense as the Aztecs are not a pushover by any means, and their defense is one of the best in the MWC. Instead, the Aztecs got destroyed in the air and on the ground, while not being able to do much themselves. Either they were looking ahead to the Ohio State matchup, or they really fell apart since last year’s 9-4 campaign. To make sense of it, SDSU was -14 point favorites in the loss.
What should we make of San Diego State, who was unable to cover last week’s spread by 35 points? After giving up 533 total yards to an FCS school, it’s hard to imagine them doing much to stop the balanced offense of Braxton Miller and Jordan Hall.
The other side of the field will be just as difficult as the Aztecs struggled to do anything. Quarterback Adam Dingwell did okay last season, starting half of the Games, but was not accurate at all last week going 27-for-63 for zero touchdowns and Four interceptions. It wasn’t much better for one of the best RBs in the MWC, Adam Muema, as he finished with 10 carries for 17 yards and left the Game early due to his ankle. This is a guy that ran close to 1,500 yards last season. He’ll likely play against the Buckeyes, but is it going to matter that much in the end? If you can’t run against an FCS school, Ohio State is going to be a much bigger challenge.
San Diego State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road Games, but a paltry 0-4 ATS in its last Four non-Conference Games. Ohio State doesn’t fare much better with a surprising 0-4 ATS mark in its last Four against the MWC.
As a result of last weeks outcomes, we have a line here that’s a tad iNFLated presenting perhaps a little value on the San Diego State side. The Aztecs were 9-4 a year ago and return most of a defense that was decent and an offense that put up yards per point numbers that were very good. It’s a better Aztec team than we saw a week ago and we would be shocked if we didn’t see a huge effort this week. Typically what we see in a situation like this, is a decent team from a lower Conference like the Aztecs hanging around and at the very least earning a little respect from the big boys.
Our Score Prediction model, if this Game were played a year ago, has the Buckeyes on top 43-20, which would indicate a lean towards SD ST +28. However, there may be more value in the first quarter and or the first half lines here as we’d expect the Aztecs to hang on here until the Ohio State depth takes over in the 2nd half. No lines posted for halves or quarters as of this writing on Wednesday, but Our recommendation here is San Diego State + in the 1st quarter and 1st half.