Pick – Trends
We’re only three Games into the season and neither one of these teams expected to be in their current positions. Both have been big disappointments out of the Big 12. Kansas State lost its first Game to North Dakota State, an FCS team, while Texas has now lost two straight Games by large margins in which it was favored. Even though K State has won the last five meetings, Texas still comes in as small -5.5 point favorites at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.
What does the betting public think? Well, it looks like even the public is fed up with the Longhorns. Normally, Texas at home would draw in the public money. This week, just 27% of the early action is on Texas. These stats are courtesy of the betting trends feature at 5dimes.com (sign up for an account and you can view all the Games)
The Wildcats have somewhat improved since that early season slip-up, but wins over LA-LAfayette and UMass aren’t all that great. Their offense does not look like previous ones with the loss of last year’s Heisman candidate, Collin Klein. Jake Waters and Daniel Sams are splitting time under center, but Sams is used exclusively in the option. Fortunately for him, the Longhorns have been killed by option-heavy teams the past two weeks. They gave up 272 rushing yards against Ole Miss and a whopping 550 rushing yards at BYU. BYU’s leading rusher was its quarterback, who totaled 259 rushing yards and three TDs. Needless to say, Sams will see more work than usual this weekend.
Jake Waters is the passer in the offense and is struggling a bit in his first season with KSU. He’s been careless with the ball, throwing five interceptions in the first three Games. Waters will have to make better decisions with the ball or Sams could see more time. Also in the backfield is John Hubert, who’s in his third season as the K State starting running back. Texas will need to figure out how to stop the run if it wants any chance in this Game.
Kansas State’s defense might be its strong suit and will have match last year’s Game if they want to win. Even though the Longhorns piled up 413 offensive yards, they only scored 24 points as McCoy tossed a couple picks. In that Game, the Wildcats used their rushing attack with ease later in the Game, scoring 35 points in the second half.
The problem for Texas is that starting quarterback David Ash is still questionable due to a concussion suffered a couple weeks ago. Case McCoy got the start last week and not many fans were happy about it as Texas lost 44-23 at home. One of their top receivers is also questionable in Mike Davis, so that’s something to monitor. The Longhorns still have Johnathan Gray and Joe Bergeron in the backfield to go with WR Jaxon Shipley, so it’s not like they are lacking options. If Ash can play, watch out and expect a lot of points.
Not only have the Wildcats won the last five meetings, but they have also covered in six straight matchups with Texas. To go along with that, the underdog is 7-1 in their last eight meetings. Kansas State is a solid 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road Games, while the Longhorns are a disappointing 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home Games vs. a team with a winning road record. That’s not a healthy number. Most trends point to the over, but there is a couple that don’t follow suit. The under has hit in six of Kansas State’s last seven road Games.
Davis Ash was just listed as doubtful. Maybe that’s a good thing? Our numbers say Kansas State is the right side in this one. Hard to imagine Texas dropping another one, it’s not as if this team doesn’t have talent and now they are desperate, which is ultimately what keeps us off this one. Just a lean, but we’ll go with Our numbers. Kansas State +5.5