Notre Dame
vs.
Stanford
College Football
Pick
11/30/13
This Game doesn’t look to be as competitive as in recent years, but you never know with these two. Stanford is on a 15-Game home winning streak, which is good for second-longest in the nation. The Cardinal will look to extend that as -14 point favorites over the Fighting Irish. with a total of 49 at 5 dimes sportsbook.
Notre Dame is a tricky team. When you think their defense has things figured out, they go and allow 34 points to Navy and then lose 28-21 to Pittsburgh. As 3-point underdogs against BYU last weekend, ND put in a complete Game and led from the start. The Irish already have two Pac-12 wins against Arizona State and USC, can they make it a third?
Stanford isn’t as confusing of a team, but they do have some disappointing results on the road, losing to Utah and USC. However, at home there haven’t been too many problems as seen in the 50-point beat down of California last week.
Notre Dame will have its hands full on offense that’s for sure. Stanford almost never gets beat on the ground, which means Tommy Rees will have the load on his shoulders. against the similarly daunting defense of Michigan State earlier in the season, Rees went 14-for-34 for 142 yards. While he did get the win, that may not be the case if he completes less than 50 percent of his passes against the Cardinal. TJ Jones and DaVaris Daniels are sizable weapons, but will that be enough to move the ball? The Irish actually ran the ball well last week which was surprising, but you can’t count on Cam McDaniel to have another 100-yard day.
Stanford doesn’t have an amazing offense either, but they usually get things done. Running back Tyler Gaffney has been a beast with 1,296 yards and 16 TDs for the year. Notre Dame has a solid defense, but Stanford’s offensive line may be too strong. And then there’s playmaker Ty Montgomery, who finished with five total touchdowns last week. He leads the team at wide out, but is also one of the best return men in the country. QB Kevin Hogan is in the same class as Rees. He’s not going to put up huge numbers here, the coaches just want him to be safe with the ball.
The last time these teams played was a little more important of a Game as Notre Dame was considered one of the best teams in the nation. This time, the stakes aren’t as big, but it is a Top 25 matchup as the Irish sneaked into the BCS Standings this week. Stanford could lose and still make a BCS bowl, but it’s doubtful they’ll take this Game lightly.
Expect a low-scoring Game like last season, but this time the edge goes to Stanford at home.
The Fighting Irish are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight Games following a straight up win. The Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last five home Games and an incredible 22-3-1 ATS in their last 26 Games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous Game. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these schools.
Our model likes Stanford to win this Game 31-16 which is right on the posted number, so no edge there. However, the feeling here is that the Irish can make a Game of this. They won this Game last year and if you take a look at common opponents Arizona State and USC and each teams performances against those teams, there’s no reason to think Notre Dame doesn’t have a chance here. Notre Dame +14