Stanford
vs.
Arizona State
PAC-12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/18/14
There are no breaks in the Pac-12 anymore. That’s what teams are starting to realize. Even Washington State and Colorado have put up fights against both of these teams this season. That’s why eight teams are sitting with one Conference loss in the Pac-12 going into this week. Six of them are ranked and that includes these two teams. The Cardinal are -3 point road favorites at Arizona State at betonline sportsbook.
While Stanford already has two losses and is sitting near the bottom of the Top 25, this is a team you can’t forget about. They still have one of the best defenses in the country and if their offense can pull it together, can stick with anyone. Losses to USC and Notre Dame were both by three points in low-scoring affairs. They just held down high-flying Washington State to 17 points.
Arizona State is a little more unpredictable. They were whipped at home by UCLA, but then travelled to USC the next week and battled all Game long to pull out a win. The Sun Devils have potential, but don’t always show it. The news heading into this Game is the status of QB Taylor Kelly, who returned to practice last week. While Mike Bercovici has been a solid fill-in, he isn’t Kelly. If Kelly can play, that would be a boost for this squad. (he is listed as probable)
This matchup has been dominated by Stanford over the last couple of seasons, mainly because of their defense. The Cardinal have won Four straight matchups, covering three of them with the other pushing. Last year, Stanford won this matchup twice, beating ASU in the Pac-12 championship Game 38-14 as a 3-point underdog. The first matchup ended 42-28 and it wasn’t that close as Stanford was actually up 39-7 going into the Fourth quarter.
Needless to say, Stanford has had Taylor Kelly’s number. And even if Kelly does return, who’s to say it won’t happen again considering he hasn’t played the last two Games? Arizona State’s run Game has disappeared over the last two contests with Bercovici at the helm because he can’t make things happen on his feet like Kelly. With no run Game against Stanford, it will be hard to pull off an upset, even at home.
D.J. Foster actually has good rushing numbers, but those were in the first three Games. He’s been bigger in the receiving Game in the last two along with Jaelen Strong. If ASU becomes one dimensional, it could be a long day for them, just like the UCLA Game.
ASU’s defense is still lacking in a few areas and Stanford should be able to have success against them like in last year’s Games. It’s likely the Cardinal will try and pound the running Game after having success last week. That should open things up for QB Kevin Hogan and playmaker Ty Montgomery a bit. The only way Stanford loses this Game is if Hogan turns the ball over and makes costly passes. He hasn’t looked great this year, so it’s possible. Hogan only passed it a total of 35 times combined in the two wins last year if that says anything.
Arizona State needs to stop the run and also get Foster going on offense. Otherwise, it could be a similar result to last year.
The Cardinal are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road Games, but have not covered in their last five following an ATS win. The Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a bye week, but only 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five home Games. The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these schools.
Our Pick – Stanford -3.5