Stanford
vs.
Notre Dame
College Football
Pick with Analysis
10/4/14
This Game is going to be fun. These teams battled in Stanford last year in the regular-season finale with the Cardinal prevailing 27-20. Enter quarterback Everett Golson. To no one’s surprise, this Game is sitting as a pick’em with it being played in South Bend.
The Fighting Irish have been impressive so far, but how impressive? They hammered Michigan, but that win doesn’t look to mean much anymore. OUtside of that one, they’ve beaten up on lesser teams. Stanford is not a lesser team and their Schedule has been more difficult.
Stanford does have their holes. We saw it in their 13-10 home loss to USC and even at Washington on Saturday; the offense has its problems. The Cardinal cannot seem to get a ground Game going and Kevin Hogan is not an elite quarterback that can carry the team by himself. However, their defense is still tops as seen in their nation-leading 6.5 points given up per Game.
With a win here, Notre Dame could be looking at a 6-0 record when they travel to Florida State in two weeks. A win for Stanford wouldn’t mean as much, as they still have road Games at Oregon and UCLA to deal with.
On the road, across the country, against a good defense, can Kevin Hogan get another big win? It’s unlikely Stanford will be able to run the ball in this Game. As a team, they have 662 rushing yards through Four Games, and none of their top running backs has a touchdown. Remound Wright took over lead-dog duties last Game and he only has 151 yards on the year. Giving touches to Ty Montgomery is inevitable to keep the defense on its toes. In addition to his returns, Montgomery is the one player that can break open the Game for Stanford, be it on the ground or in the air.
Hogan is a good quarterback, but he’s often playing with a lead. In closer Games, his struggles tend to shine. Seven of his eight touchdowns are against UC Davis and Army. He’s completing a solid 71% of his passes, but if drives don’t end in touchdowns, so what? Stanford has scored 30 points total in their two Games against Pac-12 opponents.
As for Notre Dame, this is a new challenge. As mentioned above, they don’t really have a good win yet. But their defense is feisty and with Brian Kelly, is usually one of the best. Golson at quarterback is the difference maker in this Game. He makes things happen for the Irish.
However, much like Stanford, the ND running Game is not all that respectable. They use a trio of backs and with Golson, have Four guys that have at least 33 carries. They like running the ball, but just haven’t been all that great. That’s where Golson steps in. He has 15 total TDs (11 passing) and two interceptions. Those interceptions came last week in the same Game that he threw for a crazy 25-straight completions. Golson looks better than two years ago, most notably in his accuracy and decision making. William Fuller (344 yards, 5 TDs) has been great as the top receiving option.
The Cardinal are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road Games and have covered in Four straight following an ATS loss. The Fighting Irish have covered in Four straight vs. the Pac-12 and are 4-1 ATS in their last five home Games against a team with a winning road record. In this meeting, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five, while the under has hit Four straight times.
This is another Game where defense should play a major role. Now, the total is already low to begin with at 45.5, but we still think there’s room for an under here. Something long the lines of 21-17 or so sounds about right. Notre Dame/Stanford UNDER 45.5