Arizona – Stanford College Football ATS Pick

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Arizona

vs.

Stanford

College Football

Pick with Analysis

10/3/15

Arizona was in a perfect spot for an upset last weekend against UCLA, but the defense could do absolutely nothing and allowed 56 points in a loss. The Wildcats get another tough battle, having to travel to Stanford, and if they want to have a chance at the Pac-12 South, a win is needed. Meanwhile in the North, the Cardinal look like the favorites, which comes as a bit of surprise after they fell to Northwestern in the opener.

Arizona has a number of injuries. Not only did stud linebacker SCooby Wright get hurt again last weekend and is out for a few more weeks, but quarterback Anu Solomon is day-to-day with a head injury suffered early in that Game. Running back Nick Wilson is also questionable, but should be fine to start. The current line at betonline is Stanford -14

Injuries are taking a toll on the Wildcats and if Solomon is out, this Game could already be over. Solomon left in the first half against UCLA and his backups were not great. Jerrard Randall completed just 4-of-16 passes for 45 yards, although he also ran for 128 on the ground.

While injuries are an issue, the Arizona defense may be a bigger problem, with or without injuries. The Wildcats have given up a ton of points this year, 32 to UTSA in the opener stands out, and then last weekend’s 56 allowed to UCLA. Stanford’s offense doesn’t scream high-scoring, but they have scored more than 40 in two straight weeks now.

Kevin Hogan isn’t completely healthy, but they didn’t need him to be against the Beavers. Christian McCaffrey rushed for 206 yards and Barry Sanders (Jr.) added another 97 on the ground and that was all that was needed. With Stanford’s running Game back to full force, this Cardinal team will be tough to beat.

It’s hard to see how this Arizona defense will stop them. They allowed the Bruins to do pretty much whatever they wanted last weekend, rushing for 213 yards and six TDs as a team and Josh Rosen often found wide-open targets in the passing Game.

The only way to cover for Arizona, or have a chance of winning, will be through Solomon and Wilson on the offensive side. If Solomon can’t play, that’s an immediate problem. Randall isn’t really a threat passing the ball, so if he plays, expect Stanford to stack the box as much as possible. Considering Solomon has 11 passing TDs and zero INTs on the year, he would be a huge loss for the offense if he doesn’t go.

Stanford’s defense hasn’t looked great. Like the Cardinal’s and Wildcats’ previous couple Games, there should be points to go around for both teams (the over has hit in Arizona’s last five Games). But considering Stanford opened the season with three of Four Games on the road, expect them to be happy to be back home for their Pac-12 home opener.

The Cardinal are now 4-0 ATS in their last Four Conference Games, and in this meeting, are 7-3 ATS in the last 10. The last time these teams played was in 2012, so there’s not much recent information to look at.

Our Pick – The last time these two hooked up was 2012 at the same location. The final in that one was 54-48 with Stanford on top. Might we see a repeat of that Game this week? Perhaps.

This is a no play for us. As an FYI, Our model as Stanford on top by 21. But the reason we stay away from Games like this is simply. We could have the Game pegged dead on with Stanford ahead by three TD’s only to have the Cardinal give up a late BS TD and there goes the cover. Anytime two teams can Scorethe way these two have, and give up points the way these two have, you’ve got to be aware of the back door.

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