Arkansas
vs.
LSU
SEC
Free College
Football Pick
11/14/15
LSU may have picked up its first loss of the season, but there’s still a small chance the Tigers can make the College Football Playoff and win the SEC West. They’ll take on an Arkansas team that is suddenly hot with two straight SEC wins. Nevertheless, LSU is at home and opened as a -7.5 point favorite at betonline.
The Razorbacks, like last year, are starting to figure things out a bit after a slow start that saw them with a 2-4 record. Now at 5-4 with a 3-2 SEC mark, they have another chance at a big upset. The problem for them is that they have given up 98 points in their last two SEC Games. But on the other end of that, they have scored 107.
LSU hasn’t been in that high scoring of Games, but will look to bounce back after getting handled by Alabama. The result was actually worse than the 30-16 Scorethey came out with. The Tigers were exploited by a better team as Leonard Fournette was held to just 31 yards, and quarterback Brandon Harris could do nothing going 6-of-19 for 128 yards. Even on the defensive side where LSU has been decent all year, they couldn’t do anything against Alabama’s ground Game.
With how the Arkansas offense has looked, it wouldn’t be surprising for them to keep this one close, much like the Ole Miss win last weekend.
A positive for LSU is that Arkansas’ defense isn’t at the same level as Alabama’s. Fournette should be able to get back on track with another 100 or even 150-yard Game. But covering this Game may end up depending on what Brandon Harris can do. He’s been inconsistent this year and when asked to do more, hasn’t done the job.
The Razorbacks probably wont reach 50 points in this one, but they should Scorea decent amount. LSU hasn’t had a great defensive outing all year. While they haven’t allowed more than 30 points all year, they also have allowed at least 19 points in every contest. And with how the Arkansas offense has looked, LSU could have some troubles.
Quarterback Brandon Allen has been huge for the Razorbacks, throwing 11 touchdowns in the last three Games and only one interception in that time. against a decent Ole Miss defense, he threw for 442 yards and six touchdowns. He’ll probably find more resistance in this Game, but if so, Arkansas has a good enough running Game to continue to put up points. Running back Alex Collins has rushed for at least 100 yards in seven of his nine Games this year and considering how LSU got gashed last week, Collins could easily hit 100 again.
Les Miles usually has his team ready off a loss, but this one won’t be easy. Arkansas won this Game 17-0 last year, but LSU didn’t have the same level of offense. The spread still seems high considering how the Razorbacks have played in recent weeks.
The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings, but the Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in the last eight between these schools. In addition, Arkansas has covered in Four straight Games overall on the road.
Our Pick – A case could certainly be made for Arkansas here. As mentioned above, this LSU defense isn’t up to standard. Their defensive yards per point number of 14.1 drives that point home. Heck, Arkansas has an identical ypp defensive number.
However, Our model likes LSU by more than the spot and the revenge angle also comes into play here, not to mention the motivation of just having lost a huge Game to Bama last week.
Would love to see this number dip to -7 or less, but for now, LSU -7.5