Baylor – TCU NCAAF Point Spread Pick

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Big 12

Football Pick

with Analysis


TCU’s hopes at the College Football Playoff are all but gone, but the Horned Frogs can stop any chance that Baylor has of making the Top 4 this week. The preseason projected two best teams in the Big 12 face off in late November with Baylor opening as a slight -1.5 point road favorite (at betonline Sportsbook). However, the Game is currently off the board due to the injuries listed below.

The main thing in this matchup is the status of each quarterback. Trevone Boykin is questionable after missing TCU’s Game last weekend, while Jarrett Stidham (already Baylor’s backup) is dealing with multiple injuries suffered against Oklahoma State.

The Horned Frogs haven’t impressed much this year, struggling against weaker teams and now have lost two of their last three Games against relevant ones. They fell 49-29 at OK State a few weeks ago, and while they fought valiantly with a backup QB at Oklahoma last week, but failed to convert a Game-winning two-point conversion at the end.

While this is the final regular Game for TCU, Baylor still has to play Texas next week. The Bears still have a slight shot at the Top 4, after winning at OK State last weekend, but need to win out for that to happen.

There’s a decent chance Boykin returns for this Game which would be huge even though the backups battled against the Sooners. Foster Sawyer and Bram Kohlhausen combined for three TDs and three picks, with Kohlhausen having the best numbers. Boykin would obviously boost the offense even with top receiver Josh Doctson out. Kolby Listenbee and KaVontae Turpin stepped in and played well last week and will be enough for Boykin in this offense. The same goes for running back Aaron Green, who has 303 yards over the last two Games.

The issue with both of these teams is that neither defense has really stopped anyone at a consistent rate. Baylor still hasn’t stopped a decent Big 12 opponent to under 30 points, while TCU has been better, but only slightly.

The Bears could be without Stidham in this Game after he picked up ankle and hand injuries and never returned on Saturday. If he can’t go, Chris Johnson is the next man up and he performed solidly with 138 yards, two TDs and one INT, while also rushing for 42 yards and another TD against the Cowboys. At this point, it looks like any QB can have success in this offense, especially with Shock Linwood (1,240 yards, 10 TDs) having another good season. Even Corey Coleman (20 TDs) wasn’t the main wide receiver last week as KD Cannon went for 210 yards and two touchdowns.

These teams can Scorewith the best of them, and three of the last Four meetings have been decided by three points or less. Baylor has won all three of those close Games, winning at home last year 61-58.

But, the Horned Frogs have covered in three straight and are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The over has hit in Four straight Games between these teams.

Our Pick – This Game is simply not bettable in Our opinion, due to the numerous injuries. Our model predicts a wild, high scoring affair with over 80 points being scored and a one point margin when the dust clears. Flip a coin!

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