Clemson – Miami College Football ATS Pick

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Clemson

vs.

Miami Fla

ACC

Free College

Football Pick

10/24/15

Both ACC divisions are still toss ups and both of these teams are in the thick of things. Clemson has a couple tough road Games before its showdown with Florida State, while Miami (FL) is nearing a must-win situation in the Coastal. On the road, the undefeated Tigers are a -7 point favorite at betonline.

With a loss here, the Hurricanes might as well say goodbye to their division title hopes as their three remaining road Games all come against the teams above them in the standings: Pittsburgh, Duke and North Carolina. A win would be huge, but it’s going to be tough going against a hungry Clemson team.

Clemson has had a mostly friendly Schedule so far with only one road Game. This will be their second one of the year, and they barely escaped past Louisville in the first one. These teams haven’t played each other since 2010 so there isn’t much experience between the two.

The Tigers have some nice wins, sure, but it can’t be ignored how they looked in their first road Game. against a 2-4 Louisville team, Clemson had trouble separating itself as Deshaun Watson tossed a couple interceptions. It also can’t be overlooked that Miami hasn’t lost at home yet this year, with both losses coming on the road at Florida State and Cincinnati.

Miami’s hopes fall on the shoulders of quarterback Brad Kaaya. In his sophomore season, Kaaya has been much better at taking care of the ball, and that has never been more evident than the last couple Games as he’s tossed five touchdowns and zero interceptions against Florida State and Virginia Tech. This Clemson defense isn’t as daunting as past season’s and they can definitely be beat. Joseph Yearby has been solid out of the backfield with 517 yards and 5 TDs, but hasn’t found much room over the last couple weeks, carrying 34 times for 93 yards. That’ll need to improve in this Game.

On the other end, the Hurricanes haven’t had much success defensively, but there has been some signs of decency, as they’ve only really gotten into one shootout with Nebraska.

However, Clemson has a complete offense that can move the ball on almost any defense. They battled in close wins against Louisville and Notre Dame, and looked much better against Georgia Tech and Boston College.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson has plenty of work to do considering he’s already tossed seven interceptions, with at least one in five straight Games, but he’s made up for most of those mistakes. Watson threw for 420 yards last weekend and has thrown 14 TDs overall on the year to go with 234 rushing yards and two more TDs. He’s a playmaker and combined with RB Wayne Gallman (584 yards, 5 TDs) and WR Artavis SCott (443 yards, 4 TDs), this offense is dynamic.

Kaaya should be able to keep this Game close for Miami, similar to what Louisville was able to do against Clemson a month ago.

The Tigers are now 1-7 ATS in their last eight ACC Games and have not covered in Four straight road Games. Every trend points to the under, as it has hit in nine of Miami’s last 10 Conference Games and eight straight for Clemson when they play a team with a winning record.

Our Pick – This Game is reaching the point of no return in terms of betting on Clemson. Sportsbetting is all about obtaining the best value. This Game opened at -2.5 at betonline. It opened -4.5 elsewhere. Clemson money pOured in early and we AGREE with that early money. However, when you can wager on a Game at -3, -4, -5 and even -6, you’d be insane to wager on the Game at -7, REGARDLESS of the ventual outcome. It’s just not the smart thing to do.

Our model has Clemson by at least 10 here. Other methods we use have this Game a bit closer. At -3 or less, we’d take Clemson here. At 7 or more, we’d have to look towards Miami.