Pick – Analysis
It wasn’t a huge surprise for Georgia fans to see the Bulldogs blow an opportunity to take out Alabama. This team seems to lose a Game like that every year to take them off the pedestal in the SEC East. Up next for them is a team that just can’t figure out how to win close Games, Tennessee. But on the road, Georgia is surprisingly only a -3 point favorite at mybookie.ag.
The Volunteers have the ability to be a good team, but they can’t close the deal against anyone good. They should’ve beaten Oklahoma, Florida, and most recently couldn’t get past Arkansas. Tennessee scored 14 points in the first quarter against the Razorbacks and then went on to lose 24-20. This spread is low because of that reason. The Vols may have a losing record, but they can compete against the top teams in the country.
Georgia was one of those top teams until they ran into the wall that is Alabama. The Bulldogs will look to get back on track this week against a Tennessee defense that just gave up 275 yards rushing to the Razorbacks.
That’s where Nick Chubb comes in, who already has 745 yards and eight touchdowns, while gaining 8.2 yards per carry. Expect Georgia to run the ball as much as possible with Chubb, as well as Sony Michel and Keith Marshall. Greyson LAmbert was pretty much worthless against the Crimson Tide and was eventually benched after completing 10-of-24 passes for 86 yards and an interception. Don’t expect LAmbert to throw much against this defense, especially if the run Game is working, which it should.
On the other end, Georgia can be beat as well. While the Bulldogs have a solid defense, they hadn’t faced a decent offense until Alabama, and then were exploited for 38 points.
Joshua Dobbs hasn’t thrown a touchdown in two straight Games, which is alarming, but that should change in this Game. The Vols have had success with Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara on the ground, but also QB Dobbs, who ran for 136 yards against Florida. They may focus on the ground Game early on, but sooner or later, Dobbs will be forced to pass and so far, that hasn’t been good enough.
This spread does seem small, but does Georgia deserve any better? And while Tennessee isn’t winning Games, they should keep this one close. The last Four Games between these schools have been decided by eight points or less, and that includes the last two meetings that were three-point wins for Georgia. The Bulldogs took last year’s Game 35-32, as both offenses had success moving the ball, which is exactly what could happen this weekend.
The over has hit in five of the last six meetings between these teams, while the Volunteers are 7-2 ATS in the last nine matchups, which makes the underdog 6-2 ATS in the last eight. However, the Bulldogs have covered in Four straight Games following a straight-up loss. In addition, the Vols are 5-18-1 ATS in their last 24 home Games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Our Pick – After a cupcake early Schedule, Georgia was exposed last week by Alabama. Last two in this series went to Georgia by a field goal. This time around, it looks to us as though the wrong team is favored. PLUS, we get to go aganst the public as 85% of the wagers taken on this Game have come in on the Bulldogs. Vols +3