Kansas State
vs.
Oklahoma State
Big 12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/3/15
Kansas State opens Big 12 play with a road Game at Oklahoma State, and may already be in a must-win situation if it wants to win the conference. The Wildcats have to face TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor in three of their next Four Games. The Cowboys somehow escaped past Texas last weekend, and are a surprising -8 point favorite (at 5Dimes Sportsbook) in this Game.
If there’s one thing to do when betting Kansas State, it’s to not underrate Bill Snyder. The Wildcats were in a similar position last year, yet ended up finishing the season with a 7-2 Conference record. One of the reasons this spread is more than a touchdown is because they are coming off a small 39-33 win over a solid Louisiana Tech team. But it’s not like Oklahoma State has been much better. LUckily beating Texas and winning 24-13 against Central Michigan in the opener aren’t exactly Games that show its dominance.
The Cowboys still have plenty of problems as seen in that Texas Game. But when this team is clicking, they can be really good. They came out gunning in super speed against Texas, but that eventually slowed down after a 14-point first quarter. Quarterback Mason Rudolph (67.7%, 6 TDs, 3 INTs) looks great at times, but he also looks terrible at others. against Texas, while in the pocket, the ball slipped out of Rudolph’s hand and it was returned for a TD. In the second half he threw two interceptions and OK State was almost too scared to let him throw anymore it seemed. Running back Chris Carson (274 yards, 3 TDs) picked up an injury in that Game, but if he can’t go, Rennie Childs can fill in just fine.
Kansas State will have its hands full on defense, but if Rudolph’s confidence can’t be found, expect more turnovers in this Game. OK State’s defense is better this year and that has showed through the early going. Texas only managed 13 offensive points in that last Game, although the Longhorns don’t have much offense as it is.
This will be Kansas State quarterback Joe Hubener’s first challenge of the year and it could end up bad. This offense is probably one of the reasons OK State is an 8-point favorite. against three lackluster defenses, Hubener is completing just 53.7% of his passes for Four touchdowns. The running Game hasn’t really been there either outside of last week. Hubener has rushed for 105 yards on the year, while RB Justin SIlmon ran for 114 yards against LA. Tech, the first time KSU has had a 100-yard rusher.
The immediate numbers point to Kansas State struggling because this offense just doesn’t look like it can keep up against the up-tempo Oklahoma State. But in the battle of quarterbacks, Mason Rudolph hasn’t exactly instilled confidence in bettors this season.
The Wildcats have covered in Four straight in this matchup, including last year’s 48-14 win. Hubener made an appearance in that Game, but Jake Waters was most of the offense in the win, along with Tyler Lockett and Currey Sexton. Those guys have moved on.
The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall, but 21-5 ATS in their last 26 after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous Game. That’s a Bill Snyder stat right there. The over has hit in Four straight meetings between these schools, but the under is 5-1 in the Cowboys last six home Games.
Our Pick – This Game opened up Oklahoma State -5.5 and now sits at -8. That line move now places the value on the underdog which is the way we’re ging here. Kansas State +8