Ole Miss – Auburn College Football ATS Pick

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Ole Miss

vs.

Auburn

SEC

College Football

Free Pick

10/31/15

It hasn’t been the greatest season for Auburn, a team many thought would be competing for the playoff this season. Instead, the Tigers sit with a 1-6 ATS record and are home underdogs against Ole Miss. After last week’s dominant win, the Rebels are -7.5 point road favorites at betonline Sportsbook.

Neither one of these teams has really lived up to the hype this season. Ole Miss had an early win at Alabama, but was then thwarted by Florida and lost unexpectedly to Memphis. But after beating the Aggies 23-3 at home last weekend, is this team back at an elite level?

Auburn has never been at an elite level this season and that’s been evident in almost every Game, struggling to beat Louisville, Jacksonville State and San Jose State. Its only SEC win came at Kentucky 30-27. The Tigers offense came through at Arkansas last week, but that still resulted in a 54-46 loss in Four overtimes.

If the Ole Miss defense plays to its potential (like against Texas A&M), it’s going to be extremely hard for Auburn to move the ball. New quarterback Sean White hasn’t done anything since getting the starting gig and still doesn’t have a touchdown in Four Games played. However, he does only have one interception, which is better than what Jeremy Johnson did.

The Tigers will continue the same strategy employed the last Four Games with Peyton Barber getting 25-plus carries. So far, it has worked as he has 11 touchdowns in the last Four Games. But, will he able to find those holes against Ole Miss? The Rebels have given up just 3.1 yards per carry and only Four rushing TDs all year, so that could be an issue for Auburn.

Defensively, Auburn doesn’t present that much either, but Ole Miss hasn’t had the most consistent offense this year. After jumping out to a 14-0 lead on Memphis a couple weeks ago, Auburn’s offense deflated against a mediocre defense.

Quarterback Chad Kelly is suddenly turnover-prone and he now has 10 interceptions on the year, nine over the last five Games. Even in a 23-3 win over Texas A&M, he threw three picks. That could easily be the one thing that keeps Auburn in this Game.

The Rebels tried to get the ground Game going against the Aggies with 51 carries, and they did somewhat with 230 yards in all, but it was a forced process. They’ll probably do the same again so Kelly can’t lose them the Game. Receiver LAquon Treadwell (756 receiving yards, 5 TDs) is still one of the best in the Game and Kelly will look his way often, while Jaylen Walton leads the ground Game (428 yards).

Auburn has had the edge in this matchup in recent meetings, winning last year 35-31 at Ole Miss. That was also when Auburn could actually move the ball on the offensive end.

If the Rebels defense repeats last week’s performance, they should cover, but can we trust them to do that?

The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams and the over sports the same 5-1 record. However, the Tigers have not covered in seven straight home Games.

Our Pick – Very difficult to make a case for Auburn here. They come in with the 103rd ranked passing offense and the 101st ranked rushing defense. Ole Miss much better on both sides of the ball. Looking at the board, we still see some -7’s out there. At -7 or less we like the Rebels. Ole Miss -7 or less

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