Ole Miss – Memphis CFB Spread Winner

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Ole Miss

vs.

Memphis

Free College

Football Pick

10/17/15

Are we sure Memphis is good? It’s hard to gauge teams in the American conference, especially with there being two other teams with exact 5-0 records. Mississippi has been hit or miss in its two road Games this year. The Rebels are a -10.5 point favorite as of Wednesday at Betonline Sportsbook.

The problem for Memphis is that its defense is not good and when playing against a bigger SEC team like Ole Miss, that could mean trouble. Not to mention, last time out the Tigers had trouble overcoming a bad South Florida team. But in previous Games, they found themselves in shootouts against Bowling Green and Cincinnati and pulled out late wins. While those teams are solid, it’s hard to see them entering a shootout with a team like Ole Miss.

The Rebels have beaten up on a lot of teams this year, outside of that 38-10 loss to Florida. This is still a team that dropped 43 points on Alabama. Quarterback Chad Kelly has a string of interceptions in three-straight Games, but he does have 14 TDs on the year and has feasted against weaker defenses. He’s still completing 64.4% of his passes and should find LAquon Treadwell with success throughout the Game. Running the ball, Jaylen Walton might be out again, but a mix of Eugene Brazley, Akeem Judd and Jordan Wilkins should be enough, after all three went for TDs last weekend.

On the other side, the cover really comes down to what the Ole Miss defense can do. They’ve been good for the most part, but it’s been an interesting Schedule. The Rebels have either faced a bad offense or a good offense, with no in between.

Memphis can be considered a good offense, but it’s hard to label them on the same level as Alabama or Florida. The Tigers can move the ball, that much is certain and with some defensive injuries for Ole Miss, it wouldn’t be surprising if Paxton Lynch had a decent Game.

Through five Games, Lynch has 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions, throwing for at least 300 yards in Four-straight. But once again, he did struggle some against USF as Memphis only scored 24 points in that Game. Lynch spreads the ball a ton with no receiver having more than two touchdowns. But with most passing Games, some of Lynch’s success can be attributed to a solid ground Game. They had some trouble at USF, which is why they didn’t Scoremore. They use a number of backs — whoever has the hot hand — with Doroland Dorceus, Jarvis Cooper and Sam Craft all having at least 44 carries and no higher than 50.

Ole Miss should be able to Scoreat will in this Game, it will just come down to what Paxton Lynch can do for Memphis if the run Game isn’t having great success. Can he keep the Tigers around on the scoreboard?

When these teams met last year, it was surprisingly low scoring, with Ole Miss winning 24-3 in a push. The Scorecould’ve been different if the Rebels didn’t turn the ball over Four times. Expect more points in this one with both teams looking more offensive this season.

The Tigers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven against the SEC, while the underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these schools. The under has hit in seven straight Games for the Rebels after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous Game.

Our Pick – We asked up top how good Memphis was. We think the answer to that is, not very. Not compared to an SEC contender like Ole Miss. The Ole Miss defense figures to at the very least make a few more stops than Memphis. A few more stops should be the difference between a cover or a non cover. Ole Miss -10.5
 

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