TCU – Oklahoma NCAAF Point Spread Pick

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Big 12

College Football

Pick – Analysis


TCU’s season is in the balance as they travel to Oklahoma this weekend. The Horned Frogs have not played well as of late and may be without starting quarterback Trevone Boykin for this one. The opposite can be said about the Sooners, who can make a play for the Top 4 if they win out.

TCU lost at Oklahoma State by 20 points two weeks ago and followed that up by barely taking down winless Kansas 23-17 last weekend. This is a team that hasn’t looked all that good on the road this year and now have two injuries to their best two offensive players, so it’s only getting worse.

As for Oklahoma, things are great. While the Sooners are still just No. 7 in the CFP rankings, they have won five straight Games since falling to Texas and are coming off a huge win at Baylor. If they can win out (vs. TCU, at OK State), there will surely be a playoff spot waiting for them. Maybe…

The Sooners have turned things around by bringing an elite offense to the field along with one of the better defenses in the Big 12. They have averaged more than 55 points per Game in their last five, which is incredible in Conference play. The main reason for that has been the play of QB Baker Mayfield, who is quietly putting himself into Heisman contention. Mayfield has been dominant in this winning stretch and has 37 TDs compared to only 5 INTs on the year. That success combined with an improved running Game and not many can stop this team. Semaje Perine is back in form and has nine touchdowns in the last Four Games, while topping 160 yards twice in the process. RB Joe Mixon (9 TDs) and receiver Sterling Shepard (1,003 yards, 9 TDs) have also been huge.

On the other side of the field TCU has some big questions. Both Boykin and wide receiver Josh Doctson (1,327 yards, 14 TDs) were listed as questionable midweek. It’s likely Boykin will come through, but if Doctson plays, he still has a wrist injury that requires surgery. If Boykin doesn’t play, this offense may turn to true freshman Foster Sawyer, who came in for Bram Kohlhausen after Kohlhausen struggled in relief last week. Obviously, neither one is as good as Boykin. Running back Aaron Green is as important as ever if TCU wants a chance here. He ran for 177 yards last week, but the offense still only scored 23 points against Kansas. If Doctson can’t go, Kolby Listenbee and KaVontae Turpin will be forced into bigger roles and both of them have had injury problems too.

The Horned Frogs won this Game as a home underdog last year, but doing that feat again would be impressive given their current state. As long as the Sooners don’t look ahead to OK State, they have the edge.

The Sooners have covered in five straight Games overall, while the Frogs are just 4-6 ATS on the season. In this meeting, the under has hit in Four of the last five Games.

Our Pick – Still no line posted on this contest as of Thursday night. Our model has Oklahoma winning by a score of 50-26 and that’s WITH Boykin playing. So, play accordingly.

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