West Virginia
vs.
TCU
Big 12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/29/15
TCU is back at home and sporting a nice undefeated record as they host West Virginia on Thursday night. The Horned Frogs are scoring 50 points per Game and could easily drop that much yet again against the Mountaineers. TCU is a -14 point favorites in this one (at betonline Sportsbook).
The spread for this Game may have opened a bit lower than expected in part because the winning margin in the last three meetings between these teams has been just five points total. TCU won by one point in 2014 and 2012, while WVU took 2013’s contest by three. That’s as close as it gets, but so far, bettors have favored TCU.
The Mountaineers have lost three straight against the spread in poor outings, including a 62-38 loss at Baylor last time out. TCU hasn’t been amazing by any means, but they destroyed Texas 50-7 in their last home Game.
Like every defense that faces TCU, West Virginia is going to have tons of issues against Trevone Boykin and company. Boykin already has 25 passing TDs (5 INTs) to go with 440 rushing yards and five rushing TDs on the year. His receiving corps hasn’t been healthy outside of Josh Doctson (1,067 yards, 12 TDs), but that obviously hasn’t mattered. In the ground Game, Aaron Green will look to bounce back from a surprising 12-carry, seven-yard performance against Iowa State. Despite those numbers, Green’s still averaging 5.7 yards per carry to go with eight touchdowns.
The Mountaineers will need to show something on defense because their offense hasn’t been able to keep up with other high-scoring teams. Quarterback Skyler Howard has 15 TDs on the year, but has turned the ball over a lot the last few Games, now with an interception in Four straight. In an effort to keep Boykin off the field, WVU will look to get the ground Game going early with Wendell Smallwood (678 yards, 5 TDs) and Rushel Shell. If they can move the ball on the ground, that would be a positive sign and should help in them covering. Still, Howard will need to take care of the ball for the Mountaineers to have a shot.
TCU’s defense hasn’t been dominant by any means either, outside of holding Texas to seven points a few Games ago. This is still a team that gave up 45 points to a struggling Kansas State, 52 to Texas Tech and even 37 to SMU. There will be opportunities for West Virginia to keep up on the scoreboard. It’ll just depend on if they can keep Boykin in check, just a little bit.
Neither one of these teams has a positive record against the spread this year, but TCU, with a better offense, will get most of the public’s money. Still, it can’t be ignored the Horned Frogs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home Games. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine Games following a bye week.
Our Pick – Our numbers point towards West Virginia as being the right side here. This gives us an opportunity to go against the public as they are all over TCU in this one. Despite all the action, the line has nudged the other way which is one of Our favorite against the public scenarios. West Virginia +14