College Football Pick
By Jason Green
This big Armed Forces rivalry Games not only has bragging rights on the line, but the winner will become bowl eligible. Little bit of an understatement to say these teams rely on the run to score, as each ranked in the top 6 in the nation in rushing yards per Game while Army ranks dead last in the nation in passing yards per Game and Air Force ranks 118th.
Air Force snapped their 3-Game losing streak in their last Game where they really struggled on the defensive side of the ball. They did beat Navy this season and if they can win this Game they can sweep the Armed Forces season series.
Army has won 2 of their last 3 Games and they still have to face Navy, which recently dropped out of the top 25 with a loss, in their season finale. While the Falcons have struggled on defense as of late the Black Knights rank a solid 9th in the nation only giving up an average of 16.5 ppg.
Air Force put the breaks on their 3-Game skid with a 31-21 win over Fresno State in their last Game, but they failed to cover as a 16-point road favorite.
Army beat Wake Forest 21-13 on the road in their last Game covering as a 9.5-point favorite.
Air Force has covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 road Games facing Army.
Obviously, run defense will be key in this Game and for the season Air Force ranks 14th in the nation defending the run and Army ranks 7th.
Air Force has 5 players that have at least 279 rushing yards led by Jacobi Owens (505 yards 3 TD). QB Nate Romine is one of those players and while the Falcons don’t air out much Jalen Robinette has 622 receiving yards. However, while he has had over 100 receiving yards in 3 straight Games 2 came in losses so the Falcons need to stick with their bread-and-butter, which is running the ball.
Army almost never airs it out averaging less than 100 passing yards per Game, but they QB Andy Davidson and Ahmad Bradshaw have combined to rush for 1,223 yards with 12 TD.
AF is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-Conference Games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Games overall, and in their last 4 Games the posted total has gone Over every time.
Army is 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 Games following a straight up win and in their last 10 Games the posted total has gone Under 7 times.
Our Pick – Army -2