College Football Pick
Temple will host Army to kick off their 2016 college football season and the Owls find themselves as -16 point home favorites at 5dimes Sportsbook with a total of 46.5. Temple is in off of a successful 10-4 season, their most wins since 1979, while the Black Knights of Army suffered through a 2-10 campaign.
This Game opened up as high as high as Temple -19, but Army backers have brought that number down to where it currently sits at 16. Not surprisingly, the total for this Game opened up as high as 54 and has been bet down to 46.5. So, bettors obviously feel that not only did the oddmakers not give Army enough respect with their opener, they also, according to the bettors, misjudged the defenses in this matchup as they are expecting a much lower scoring Game than the oddsmakers.
So, who’s right? The oddsmakers with their openers? Or the bettors who have pushed these numbers to where they now sit?
We agree with the move on the total. Bettors have that one right. Temple is a run 1st offense and while they lost some talent on defense, that unit should once again be solid. We all know Army is going to run, run and run some more, so the clock should move quickly in this one and should keep the Scoremuch lower than the original 54. The problem, if your a totals bettor, is that it’s a cardinal sin to bet a Game on the same side of an 8 point move. When the Game lands on 49, all the wiseguy under bettors will be counting their winnings while the squares will be kicking their TV sets.
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The same can be said of the side. Sharp Army bettors are sitting with anywhere from +19 to +17. Imagine the poor guy that takes ++16.5 only to see the Game land on 17? Being successful betting on sports is complex. Getting the best number on a Game is crucial. Knowing when to pass is equally as crucial.
With all of the above in mind, we’re going to make the slightest of leans on Temple -16 (or lower if the number keeps dropping) in hopes that Temple has enough key pieces to the puzzle left from last year to shut down Army and get the cover. Something along the lines of 28-10 would do it. However, we wouldn’t consider playing this for real until the Game reached Temple -14.