College Football Pick
It’s hard to see anyone beating Alabama at this point in all of college football. That said, this Game has been circled by many for the last couple months as a potential upset. However, that changed when Auburn slipped up against Georgia a couple weeks ago. And so, the Crimson Tide are -17 point home at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.
There hasn’t been anything all that exciting for Alabama this season, at least from a results perspective. They’ve dominated almost every opponent outside of a couple close contests against teams like Ole Miss and LSU. But one thing that’s remained the same is their dominance at home, where this Game is.
It hasn’t been as cut and dry for Auburn, who didn’t have much of an outlook before the season after two losses the first three weeks. And then the Tigers took down LSU, destroyed Mississippi State and Arkansas and dispatched Ole Miss on the road. But then the CFP rankings came out and they struggled to beat Vandy and lost to Georgia. They’ve been inconsistent, but surely they’ll put their best foot forward in this rivalry, right?
Last year ended up being a close Game even with Auburn an arguably worse team than this year’s version with only two SEC wins. Now, the Tigers may be considered the second best team in the conference. The Tigers were gashed on the ground for 286 yards and almost seemed lucky to put 13 points on the board.
And that could be the case again. In their last road Game, Auburn scored just seven points against Georgia. Sure, this offense has had some big outings, but that’s been because of a dominant run Game. The problem is that Alabama probably has the best run defense in the country and recently shut down the LSU ground attack.
It could easily be the same case again against Auburn. It doesn’t help that Auburn’s top running back Kamryn Pettway is questionable to play after missing the last two Games. The injury to top QB Sean White is of concern as well, but it’s not like this team wants to pass much. However, that may be what it comes down to against this Tide defense and the Tigers may be left to hope backup Jeremy Johnson can move the ball. Johnson started in this matchup last year, going 10-of-23 for 170 yards with 77 of those yards on one completion.
The other side could be a problem too for Auburn. This isn’t the greatest Alabama offense, but they haven’t been stopped at home yet and as seen in the Georgia Game, Auburn’s defense can be run on.
That’ll obviously be the main worry for the Tigers defense going against Damien Harris and Jalen Hurts. After the Tide ran all over this team a year ago, that could easily be the case again, now with a dual-threat quarterback. As long as this Game is close, Nick Saban won’t ask Hurts to do much through the air, which is how it went against LSU. But if it opens up at all, Hurts did throw for 347 yards and Four touchdowns against Mississippi State. If this offense opens up, that likely means an Alabama cover.
The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road Games and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall. The Crimson Tide have covered in five straight Conference Games and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home Games. A lot of trends point to the under and it’s hit six times in the last eight meetings between these schools in Alabama. The Tide are 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups.
Our Pick – Auburn +17